The setup
Spot gold traded above $2,460 a troy ounce in early Asia on Monday, a fresh record, after the World Gold Council's March 2026 data showed central banks as a group were net buyers for the 17th consecutive month.
The central bank story
- PBOC: 12 tonnes (March 2026)
- Reserve Bank of India: 8 tonnes
- Central Bank of Turkey: 7 tonnes
- Other: 18 tonnes
- Total: 45 tonnes, +6% YoY
The trend is the structural story of the past three years. Central banks have absorbed an average of 41 tonnes per month in the 12 months through March, well above the 2010-2020 average of 17 tonnes per month.
The market response
- Spot gold: $2,461, +1.4% on the day
- Silver: $32.40, +2.1%
- AUD/USD: 0.658, +0.3%
- Mining majors (Barrick, Newmont, AngloGold): +1.2% to +1.8%
The central bank bid is now the dominant variable. — Goldman Sachs, commodities research
Risk factors
- A surprise Fed cut that pulls real yields lower
- A peace-deal breakthrough that compresses geopolitical premium
- A coordinated central bank pause (none expected)
