Eliza Wong
The quiet county-level city of Tianmen has become China’s unlikely demographic laboratory. Nestled in Hubei province and named after its iconic Tianmen Mountain, this municipality of 1.24 million residents made headlines when its 2024 birth numbers defied national trends. While China’s overall birth rate continues its downward trajectory, Tianmen recorded an 8-year first: a 17% year-on-year increase in newborns. This unexpected reversal stems from radical birth incentives that have families receiving up to $50,000 in cash rewards, housing subsidies, and medical benefits for having second and third children. As Tianmen’s population teeters toward dipping below the million-resident threshold, officials have placed an unprecedented bet – allocating one-third of the city’s entire fiscal revenue to fund what may be China’s most aggressive pro-birth policy package. The outcome of this demographic experiment could reshape how China addresses its deepening population crisis.
Key Takeaways
– Tianmen’s birth incentives offer up to $50,000 per family for second/third children, including cash payments, housing subsidies, and free medical services
– The city spent 10-13 billion yuan ($1.4-1.8B) on incentives in 2024 – over one-third of its total fiscal revenue
– Despite a 17% birth rate increase in 2024, Tianmen’s population has declined by 35,000+ since 2020
– Similar incentives in Linze County and Panzhihua showed only temporary birth rate improvements
– China’s new national childcare subsidy offers 3,600 yuan/year per child starting January 2025
Tianmen’s Demographic Turning Point
Once an unremarkable administrative region, Tianmen gained national attention when its government website announced a demographic milestone on July 24, 2024. After eight consecutive years of declining births, the city recorded 7,217 newborns – a 17% year-on-year increase. More remarkably, over 50% of these births were second or third children according to Xinhua data. This reversal stands in stark contrast to Tianmen’s recent demographic history. Births peaked at 19,067 in 2012 before beginning a steady decline, hitting a historic low of just 6,004 newborns in 2023. The 2024 rebound partially aligns with China’s national trend that saw births increase by 52,000 to 9.54 million, largely attributed to the culturally significant Dragon Year effect. However, Tianmen’s continued 5.6% growth in the first half of 2025 suggests more than cultural superstition is at work.
The Anatomy of a Birth Rebound
Demographers identify both structural and policy-driven factors behind Tianmen’s birth surge. Like much of China, the city benefited from the Dragon Year baby boom as couples timed pregnancies to deliver during this auspicious zodiac year. Yet the sustained growth into 2025 points to the effectiveness of the city’s birth incentives program. Tianmen’s demographic predicament mirrors China’s broader crisis – its fertility rate dropped to 1.09 in 2022 according to the National Bureau of Statistics, far below the replacement level of 2.1. What distinguishes Tianmen is the scale and specificity of its policy response. While national birth rates saw a temporary Dragon Year bump, Tianmen’s growth has extended beyond the cultural phenomenon, suggesting its incentive package may offer lessons for other shrinking cities.
The Radical Incentive Package
In September 2023, after months of interdepartmental consultations, Tianmen’s government unveiled its Five-Point Birth Encouragement Policy. This framework evolved into the comprehensive Seven-Point Opinion by early 2024, creating China’s most valuable birth incentive package. Targeting families with second and third children who register their newborns in Tianmen, the program offers:
– $330-$460 cash rewards for second/third births
– Monthly childcare stipends of $110-$140 until age three
– Housing subsidies of $8,300-$16,600 for new home purchases
– Free prenatal genetic screening and pregnancy services
– IVF subsidies up to $1,400 and artificial insemination support
Financial Mechanics of the Gamble
The program’s generosity comes at staggering fiscal cost. Second-child families can receive benefits equivalent to $39,600 while third-child families get up to $49,000 – nearly matching Tianmen’s average annual household income. With 3,653 second/third babies born in 2024, the program consumed 10.49-13 billion yuan ($1.45-1.8 billion) – over one-third of the city’s 30.08 billion yuan ($4.15B) annual revenue. This allocation represents a monumental gamble for a municipality already running a massive budget deficit, with expenditures exceeding revenues by 80.37 billion yuan ($11.1B) in 2024. The housing subsidies alone cover 15-24% of typical home prices in a city where apartments average $55,000. Beyond direct payments, the policy includes extended paid maternity leave (7-8 months for second/third children) with government-funded stipends for non-government workers.
Persistent Population Challenges
Despite the birth rate rebound, Tianmen’s demographic fundamentals remain troubling. Census data reveals the city lost 276,800 residents between 2010-2020 – Hubei province’s fourth-largest decline. The exodus continued post-pandemic with another 74,600 residents leaving between 2020-2024. Unlike earlier periods where natural population growth partially offset migration losses, Tianmen now faces the dual pressures of outmigration and negative natural increase. The city’s total fertility rate remains below replacement level despite incentives, and working-age residents continue seeking opportunities in Wuhan and other provincial hubs. The fundamental mismatch between Tianmen’s economic opportunities and its young workforce’s aspirations creates a demographic drain that cash incentives alone cannot solve. Without complementary job creation and economic development, even substantial birth incentives may merely slow rather than reverse population decline.
Migration vs. Natural Decrease
Tianmen’s population dynamics shifted dramatically around 2021. Previously, natural population growth partially mitigated migration losses – in 2015, while 50,000 residents left, natural increase added 7,544 residents. Post-2021, the combination of falling births, rising deaths, and sustained outmigration created compound decline. This pattern reflects China’s broader demographic transition where the National Bureau of Statistics reports deaths outnumbered births in 2023 for the first time in six decades. For Tianmen, this means its birth incentive program fights against both structural economic limitations and powerful national demographic headwinds.
Comparative Policy Effectiveness
Tianmen’s approach follows earlier regional experiments with varying success. In 2022, Linze County in Gansu province launched similarly generous incentives offering:
– $275-$690 birth bonuses
– Annual childcare stipends of $690-$1,380 until age three
– $550-$830 education subsidies
– $4,100 housing grants
The program initially increased births from 817 (2021) to 844 (2022), but 2023 saw a sharp decline to 641 newborns – 24% below the incentive-era peak. More tellingly, Linze’s population continued shrinking, losing 591 residents in 2024 alone. Panzhihua in Sichuan province demonstrated similar limitations with its 2021 policy offering monthly $70 stipends per child. Births briefly increased from 7,629 (2022) to 8,296 (2023) before falling to 7,253 in 2024 – prompting enhanced incentives in June 2025. These cases suggest birth incentives typically produce short-term boosts followed by reversion to baseline decline. Globally, patterns reinforce this trend – South Korea’s $500/month child subsidy produced just 3.8% growth in early 2025 while maintaining the world’s lowest fertility rate (0.75). Japan recorded its fewest births ever (686,000) in 2024 despite decades of family support policies.
International Parallels
The limited efficacy of economic incentives reflects deep-seated social shifts. Vietnam recently abandoned its two-child policy as fertility rates plummeted below replacement level. European nations with comprehensive family support systems like France and Sweden maintain higher fertility rates through integrated approaches combining childcare, flexible work, and housing support. The contrast suggests that without addressing underlying factors like work-life balance, childcare accessibility, and housing affordability, financial incentives alone cannot sustainably reverse fertility declines. As the UN Population Division’s 2023 report notes, once fertility falls significantly below replacement level, policy interventions typically yield diminishing returns.
China’s National Policy Shift
Tianmen’s experiment coincides with broader policy evolution. On July 28, 2025, the State Council launched China’s first national childcare subsidy program, offering:
– Annual 3,600 yuan ($500) per child under three
– Tax-exempt status for benefits
– Exclusion from means-testing calculations
This modest foundation will expand according to the State Council’s announcement that policies will “continuously optimize based on implementation effects.” Complementing this, an August 5 policy waived public kindergarten fees for five-year-olds – a first step toward universal preschool access. These measures signal recognition that local experiments like Tianmen’s require national scaling. However, the initial subsidy represents just 14% of Tianmen’s per-child support, suggesting more aggressive intervention may be needed. The government’s white paper on population development indicates future enhancements including extended parental leave and workplace protections.
Strategic Recommendations
Based on global evidence and Tianmen’s preliminary results, effective population strategies should integrate five pillars:
Financial Architecture
– Tiered subsidies: $1,100 for first children, $1,800 for second, $3,300 for third+
– Housing priority: 50% larger mortgages for multi-child families
– Tax reform: Triple education deductions to $4,100 annually per child
Childcare Infrastructure
– Universal 0-3 childcare by 2027 at under 10% of household income
– Workplace-based daycare facilities
– Professionalized caregiver workforce with competitive compensation
Workplace Reform
– Legislated flexible work arrangements
– Employer tax credits for hiring parents
– Expanded 30-day paternity leave with job protection
Cultural Shifts
– Media representation of diverse family models
– Corporate policies normalizing parental leave uptake
– Educational curriculum valuing caregiving roles
Structural Enablers
– Affordable housing initiatives
– Education reform reducing academic pressure
– Regional economic rebalancing
This integrated approach recognizes that sustainable fertility recovery requires addressing the opportunity costs of parenting – particularly for women whose career trajectories often suffer after childbirth. ILO data shows Chinese women’s labor force participation drops 10.5 percentage points after having children compared to men’s 1.3-point decline.
Broader Implications
Tianmen’s gamble represents more than local policy innovation – it’s a stress test for China’s demographic future. With the working-age population projected to shrink by 70 million by 2040 according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the economic implications are profound. Pension systems face insolvency as the elderly dependency ratio approaches 44% by 2035. The city’s experiment demonstrates that while birth incentives can produce temporary rebounds, sustainable recovery requires reconstructing the social contract around parenting. Future policies must acknowledge that parenting decisions balance complex financial, professional, and lifestyle considerations. As Vietnam’s recent abandonment of birth limits and Japan’s continued fertility decline demonstrate, once low-fertility norms establish, reversal becomes increasingly difficult. Tianmen’s true legacy may lie not in its birth numbers, but in proving that communities will respond when society tangibly values childrearing. The challenge now lies in building economic and social ecosystems where raising children aligns with rather than conflicts with personal aspirations – creating conditions where families want children rather than feel compensated for having them.
Local governments nationwide should monitor Tianmen’s outcome metrics beyond birth numbers – particularly workforce participation among new parents, childcare utilization rates, and household economic stability. Businesses must reexamine workplace cultures that implicitly penalize parenting. Individuals can advocate for family-inclusive policies in their workplaces and communities. The demographic clock ticks for all societies facing population aging – those who transform structural support for parenting today will inherit more resilient futures tomorrow.
