Executive Summary
Key takeaways from the National Day gold consumption surge:
- Gold prices hit record highs during the holiday, boosting consumer interest in gold jewelry over other precious metals.
- Consumer demographics show older generations driving purchases, with many expressing regret over not buying more gold earlier.
- International factors like U.S. government shutdown fears and Fed policies are propelling global gold prices upward.
- Chinese central bank continues gold reserve accumulation, signaling strong long-term support for precious metals.
- Jewelry brands face mixed results, with some leveraging high gold prices through innovative business models.
Gold Consumption Heats Up During National Day Holidays
The traditional “Golden September and Silver October” consumption season has once again proven its vitality, with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival coinciding this year to create an exceptional shopping period. Across China’s major retail centers, gold jewelry counters witnessed unprecedented activity as consumers flocked to purchase precious metal products despite escalating prices. The phenomenon highlights both the cultural significance of gold in Chinese society and its perceived value as a stable investment during uncertain economic times.
At Caibai Co., Ltd. (菜百股份) flagship store in Beijing, crowds gathered around gold display cases, with sales staff reporting consistent customer flow throughout the holiday period. Similar scenes unfolded at prominent jewelry chains including Chow Tai Fook (周大福), Chow Sang Sang (周生生), Lao Feng Xiang (老凤祥), Chow Tai Seng (周大生), and Lao Miao Gold (老庙黄金). What distinguished this year’s shopping frenzy was the pronounced preference for gold over other precious metals and gemstones, creating a bifurcated market where gold products enjoyed robust demand while silver, platinum, palladium, diamond and jade items attracted significantly less attention.
Price Milestones Reshape Consumer Behavior
On October 1, pure gold listed prices at major brands surpassed 1,120 yuan per gram, with Chow Sang Sang (周生生) reaching 1,130 yuan per gram – a new historical high. The sustained upward trajectory of gold prices has fundamentally altered purchasing patterns, with consumers increasingly viewing gold jewelry through dual lenses of adornment and investment. Multiple brand representatives noted that while customer traffic during this year’s National Day holiday remained substantial, it represented approximately half the volume witnessed during the first half of the previous year when gold’s bullish run initially gained momentum.
Industry insiders attribute the shifting consumer psychology to price expectation dynamics. “Many customers adopted a wait-and-see approach during the second and third quarters, but the recent wave of price increases has solidified the belief that buying later rather than sooner comes with opportunity costs,” explained a gold jewelry salesperson at Caibai Co., Ltd. (菜百股份). The salesperson further noted that gold jewelry purchases remain predominantly need-driven, serving wedding ceremonies, family gift exchanges, and social reciprocity traditions that form the bedrock of Chinese cultural practices.
Demographic Insights into Gold Buying Patterns
The gold buying demographic during this National Day period revealed distinct generational preferences, with middle-aged and older consumers constituting the majority of purchasers. This cohort demonstrated particular interest in smaller-weight gold items, balancing aesthetic preferences with budget considerations. Their purchasing decisions reflect deep-seated beliefs about gold’s enduring value and liquidity, perspectives forged through decades of economic transformation in China.
One elderly female customer captured the prevailing sentiment succinctly: “The biggest regret of recent years is not buying more gold twenty years ago. Regardless of time or place, gold can quickly be converted to cash. Leaving gold to my children provides more security than anything else.” This statement underscores the intergenerational wealth preservation mentality that continues to drive gold acquisition among Chinese families, particularly during festive periods when gift-giving traditions amplify purchasing activity.
Contrasting Reception of Alternative Precious Metals
While gold enjoyed overwhelming consumer interest, other precious metals failed to generate comparable enthusiasm despite impressive price performances. Platinum PT999 at Caibai Co., Ltd. (菜百股份) saw its listed price increase approximately 30% from early June, reaching 482 yuan per gram by late September. Similarly, silver and palladium markets witnessed significant rallies in secondary markets, momentarily outperforming gold in certain trading sessions. Yet retail consumers largely overlooked these alternatives, with corresponding jewelry counters experiencing minimal foot traffic.
A platinum sales specialist at Caibai Co., Ltd. (菜百股份) observed: “Middle-aged and older consumers remain the core jewelry purchasing demographic. While some younger customers appreciate platinum’s aesthetic appeal, they frequently hesitate at the point of purchase, weighing factors like value retention that favor gold.” This generational divide highlights the challenge facing alternative precious metals in capturing market share from gold’s dominant position in Chinese consumer consciousness.
International Gold Markets and Domestic Price Dynamics
The National Day gold buying spree unfolded against a backdrop of robust international precious metals markets. On October 1, COMEX gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a record 3,922.7 USD per ounce, approaching the psychological 4,000 USD threshold. However, the appreciation of the renminbi moderated the domestic price increase relative to international benchmarks, creating a nuanced pricing environment for Chinese consumers and investors.
Fan Rui (范芮),有色金属分析师 at Guoyuan Futures (国元期货), identified key drivers behind the gold price surge: “Recent gold appreciation primarily stems from U.S. government shutdown concerns and escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict tensions. If the U.S. government shuts down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics would suspend all operations, meaning economic data scheduled for release during that period wouldn’t be published. Markets worry that the absence of non-farm payroll data and other Federal Reserve-monitored indicators could heighten macroeconomic uncertainty, thus boosting precious metals prices.”
Central Bank Policies and Gold Reserve Accumulation
According to State Administration of Foreign Exchange (国家外汇管理局) statistics, China’s gold reserves reached 74.02 million ounces by the end of August 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces and marking the tenth consecutive month of accumulation. This trend aligns with global central bank behavior detailed in the World Gold Council’s “2025 Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey,” which found that 95% of respondent central banks anticipate further increases in global gold reserves over the next twelve months. Notably, 43% of surveyed institutions plan to expand their holdings – a record high proportion.
A public fund professional specializing in global asset allocation commented: “In a bull market, peaks become unpredictable. With gold establishing new historical highs, combined with soaring expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts and continuous central bank gold purchases globally, the medium-term upward trajectory for gold prices appears well-supported.” This perspective reinforces the notion that institutional and governmental demand provides substantial foundation for sustained gold price strength.
Investment Implications and Market Opportunities
The divergent performance between gold and other precious metals presents both challenges and opportunities for investors and industry participants. As Fan Rui (范芮) of Guoyuan Futures (国元期货) noted: “Within the coordinated upward movement of precious metals this year, we’ve repeatedly witnessed scenarios where platinum, palladium, and silver outperformed gold. The short-term drivers for platinum, palladium, and silver resemble those for gold, but since gold initiated the long-term precious metals uptrend, its marginal price risk has increased. Consequently, other precious metals now demonstrate relatively superior investment value.”
The public fund expert further elaborated on the case for alternative precious metals: “On one hand, global ‘gold rush’ sentiment continues unabated, while platinum and silver remain undervalued relative to gold, attracting rapid capital rotation. On the other hand, the declining U.S. dollar index and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts reduce holding costs, combined with stable industrial consumption and continuously tightening supply, providing dual impetus for silver and platinum prices.”
Jewelry Industry Adaptation to Price Volatility
For jewelry brands, rising precious metals prices present a complex operational landscape. A securities firm consumer sector analyst explained: “Higher gold prices don’t uniformly benefit branded jewelry companies. Elevated gold prices somewhat suppress certain consumer demand, while high price volatility compresses profit margins per gram and imposes stricter cost control requirements on jewelry brands.” Financial results from the first half of the year substantiate this assessment, with listed jewelry companies including Chow Tai Seng (周大生), Lao Feng Xiang (老凤祥), China Gold (中国黄金), and Yuyuan Tourist Mart (豫园股份) experiencing both revenue and profit declines.
However, companies emphasizing differentiated gold jewelry strategies demonstrated resilience. Mankalon (曼卡龙) and CHJ Jewellery (潮宏基) reported first-half revenue growth of 26.79% and 19.54% respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing 35.18% and 44.34%. Caibai Co., Ltd. (菜百股份) stood out among traditional gold jewelry enterprises by achieving both revenue and net profit growth during the first half. The company attributes this performance to its “smile curve” business model that focuses on upstream activities like raw material procurement and product design, and downstream efforts including jewelry culture promotion, direct store management, and membership value-added services – essentially concentrating on segments that deliver higher customer value addition.
Strategic Considerations for Market Participants
The National Day gold consumption phenomenon offers valuable insights for various stakeholders. For consumers, the persistent upward trend in gold prices underscores the importance of strategic purchasing timing, though cultural and ceremonial needs often dictate buying decisions regardless of market conditions. The widespread sentiment of regret among those who bought insufficient gold in previous years highlights the long-term value perception embedded in Chinese consumer mentality.
For investors, the gold market presents multiple entry points across physical bullion, jewelry, mining stocks, and precious metals funds. The coordinated movement among precious metals suggests potential diversification benefits within the sector, particularly as silver and platinum demonstrate catch-up potential relative to gold. Monitoring central bank purchase patterns, Federal Reserve policy directions, and geopolitical developments remains crucial for timing investment decisions.
Forward-Looking Market Assessment
The fundamental drivers supporting gold prices appear durable in the medium term. Continuous central bank accumulation, particularly by the People’s Bank of China (中国人民银行), provides institutional demand support. Geopolitical tensions and currency volatility enhance gold’s safe-haven appeal. For jewelry retailers, the challenge lies in balancing inventory management with consumer price sensitivity, while developing innovative product offerings that maintain appeal across generational segments.
The contrasting performance between gold-focused and diversified jewelry companies suggests that business model adaptation represents a critical success factor. Companies that effectively communicate product value beyond mere material content – through design innovation, cultural storytelling, and customer experience enhancement – appear better positioned to navigate price volatility while maintaining profitability.
Navigating the Evolving Precious Metals Landscape
The National Day holiday gold consumption surge exemplifies the complex interplay between cultural traditions, investment psychology, and global market forces. Record gold prices have intensified both purchasing activity and consumer regret, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that further supports demand. While alternative precious metals present theoretical investment opportunities, gold’s cultural primacy and perceived stability continue to dominate Chinese consumer behavior.
Market participants should monitor several key indicators moving forward: international gold price correlations with domestic markets, central bank reserve policy adjustments, Federal interest rate decisions, and jewelry industry innovation in product development and marketing. The enduring appeal of gold during festive periods underscores its unique position in Chinese society – simultaneously serving as ornament, gift, store of value, and intergenerational wealth transfer mechanism. As price trajectories evolve, stakeholders who understand these multidimensional roles will be best positioned to capitalize on opportunities within China’s dynamic precious metals ecosystem. For ongoing analysis of Chinese equity markets and precious metals trends, subscribe to our professional insights service and download our quarterly gold market outlook reports.