The spectacle of the 13-hour waitlist is a phenomenon that commands attention, not just from hungry diners but from market analysts and investors watching China’s volatile consumer sector. When the Sichuanese grilled fish chain Kaojiang (烤匠) opened its doors in Shanghai, it didn’t just launch a restaurant; it unleashed a social and commercial event. Reports of 6,300 tables queued, scalpers charging premiums, and customers waiting until 5 a.m. have dominated social media, creating a perfect case study in modern Chinese consumption, marketing potency, and the precarious lifecycle of ‘wanghong’ (网红, internet-famous) brands.
For the financial professional, this is more than a culinary curiosity. It represents a high-stakes experiment in brand building, customer acquisition cost, and long-term value creation in China’s brutally competitive food and beverage (F&B) landscape. The question for investors and industry observers is stark: does this unprecedented hype signal the birth of a durable, scalable national champion, or is it a meticulously engineered peak preceding an inevitable decline? The sustainability of this hype-driven model hangs in the balance.
Key Takeaways
- Kaojiang’s Shanghai debut generated over 6,300 table reservations, with peak wait times exceeding 13 hours, creating a secondary ‘scalper’ market for queue positions.
- The brand’s strategy heavily leverages ‘first-store economy’ hype and manufactured scarcity, but risks alienating customers through poor experience and unmet expectations.
- Historical precedents like Tai Er Sauerkraut Fish (太二酸菜鱼) show that initial viral success often leads to a ‘traffic backlash’ phase, challenging long-term sustainability.
- The ultimate test for Kaojiang and similar brands is transitioning from short-term ‘traffic’ to long-term ‘brand equity’ through product consistency, operational excellence, and genuine customer loyalty.
The Anatomy of a 13-Hour Queue: Data, Scalpers, and Engineered Scarcity
The numbers surrounding Kaojiang’s expansion are staggering and form the core of its marketing narrative. Its entry into Beijing in 2024 was marked by claims of non-stop customer flow from 10 a.m. to midnight without discounts. Its second Beijing store boasted 450 tables booked within an hour. The Shanghai launch, however, has set a new benchmark, with over 4,000 tables still waiting after midnight on opening day. This data is not incidental; it is the headline of every promotional push.
The Secondary Market: Scalpers and Hired Line-Standers
The extreme demand has spontaneously generated a robust gray market. During the Beijing launch, queue tickets were reportedly scalped for up to 300 yuan. In Shanghai, the phenomenon evolved, with delivery platform runners being hired for a 16-yuan fee to secure a place in line, allowing ‘scalpers’ to allegedly earn over 1,000 yuan daily. This secondary market, while a testament to demand, exposes critical vulnerabilities in the brand’s operations and customer equity, raising questions about who truly benefits from the hype.
A Marketing Blueprint: From Chengdu to Shanghai
Founder Leng Yanjun’s (冷艳君) background in television advertising is telling. Kaojiang’s playbook is sophisticated: pre-launch social media teases, celebrity endorsements (like involving singer Zhang Yanqi (张颜齐) as a ‘Sichuan-Chongqing Tasting Officer’), and curated trial tastings. The slogan “Don’t eat hot pot, eat Kaojiang” is engineered for virality. Crucially, the spectacle of the 13-hour waitlist itself becomes the primary marketing content, a self-perpetuating cycle of buzz. As one Beijing mall security guard noted to media, many customers weren’t initially there for Kaojiang but joined the queue out of curiosity, only to feel committed after significant time investment—a psychological trap that fuels the spectacle.
The Double-Edged Sword of Hype: Consumer Backlash and Operational Strain
While generating immense short-term traffic, the spectacle of the 13-hour waitlist creates immense pressure. It artificially inflates customer expectations to a level that food and service alone may never meet, setting the stage for disappointment and negative word-of-mouth.
Dissonance Between Expectation and Experience
Early consumer feedback on social platforms like Xiaohongshu (小红书) is revealing a gap. Reviews describe the signature grilled fish as “generally okay,” “too salty and oily,” or simply not worth a 7.5-hour wait. One diner summarized it as a “delicate wanghong restaurant whose main function is to provide emotional value,” adding they would return for a birthday atmosphere but not for the flavor. This dissonance is the first crack in the hype facade. When the novelty fades, the core value proposition—the taste and quality of the meal—must carry the brand, and initial indicators suggest it may not be robust enough.
Systemic Strain and Eroding Trust
The operational systems are buckling under the strain. Complaints have emerged on consumer platforms regarding flaws in the ‘Heijin Jiang’ (黑金匠) priority membership program and the simplistic, easily gamed checks for hired line-standers, which “seriously affect ordinary users’ rights.” The sheer volume overwhelms waiting areas, booking systems, and kitchen throughput. This operational friction directly damages the consumer experience, transforming a promised ‘event’ into a frustrating ordeal. The brand’s claim to combat scalpers rings hollow when alternative loopholes like hired runners proliferate, further frustrating legitimate customers.
The ‘Wanghong’ Lifecycle: Can Kaojiang Escape the Curse?
Kaojiang’s trajectory is not unique; it follows a well-trodden and perilous path in China’s F&B sector. The pattern typically involves three phases: explosive growth via traffic, a painful traffic backlash, and ultimately, either brand consolidation or fade into obscurity. The spectacle of the 13-hour waitlist is a hallmark of Phase 1, but the transition to Phase 2 is already underway.
A Case Study in Parallel: The Rise and Plateau of Tai Er Sauerkraut Fish
The recent history of Tai Er Sauerkraut Fish (太二酸菜鱼), a subsidiary of Jiumaojiu (九毛九) International, serves as a cautionary tale. It exploded onto the scene with a focused single-product strategy, distinctive comic-book aesthetics, and quirky store rules. It commanded similar multi-hour waits and nationwide buzz. However, its heat has demonstrably cooled. Facing market saturation and novelty wear-off, Tai Er has been forced to expand its menu beyond its core sauerkraut fish. Tellingly, despite being a listed company, Jiumaojiu’s 2023 annual report indicated a net reduction of 135 Tai Er stores in 2023, signaling a strategic contraction and adjustment after the initial expansion frenzy. The path from viral sensation to stable, profitable chain is fraught with challenges.
The Inevitable ‘Traffic Backlash’ and the Path to ‘Brand Sedimentation’
The backlash phase is driven by the gap between sky-high hype and grounded reality. Consumers who endure extraordinary waits feel entitled to an extraordinary meal. When the experience is merely ‘good,’ disappointment sets in, fueling negative online reviews and declining repeat visits. Kaojiang is now squarely in this danger zone. The critical question is whether it can navigate to the third phase: ‘brand sedimentation’ (品牌沉淀). This requires shifting the foundation from marketing stunts and scarcity to consistent product excellence, operational efficiency, genuine service culture, and cultivated customer loyalty. It is a fundamental shift from buying traffic to earning trust.
Investment Perspective: Gauging Sustainability in China’s F&B Market
For institutional investors and analysts, the Kaojiang phenomenon is a live test of a business model. Valuations in the consumer sector often lean heavily on growth narratives and brand potential. The spectacle of the 13-hour waitlist provides compelling top-line growth data, but sophisticated market participants must look deeper at the quality and sustainability of that growth.
Key Metrics for Longevity Beyond the Queue
Investors should monitor metrics that indicate health beyond opening-day frenzy:
- Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG): Are established stores in Chengdu and Beijing maintaining sales after their ‘first-store’ hype cycle ended?
- Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) vs. Customer Lifetime Value (LTV): Are the expensive marketing campaigns and inherent customer frustration from long waits creating loyal, high-value repeat customers, or just one-time visitors?
- Product & Menu Innovation: Is there a pipeline beyond the core grilled fish to maintain interest and average check size?
- Operational Scalability: Can the supply chain, kitchen systems, and staff training be consistently replicated without degrading quality as the brand expands rapidly?
The ‘First-Store Economy’ and Urban Consumer Psychology
Kaojiang benefits immensely from the ‘首店经济’ (first-store economy), where Chinese cities and shopping malls aggressively compete to host the first location of a trendy brand, offering incentives and promotions. This, combined with the youth-driven ‘check-in’ (打卡) culture on social media, creates a perfect storm for initial success. However, this is a replicable, non-exclusive advantage. Once the brand is no longer a ‘first’ in a city, and once the social media打卡 cycle moves on, it must compete on the same footing as every other restaurant: food, service, ambiance, and value.
The narrative unfolding around Kaojiang is a microcosm of the opportunities and pitfalls in China’s new consumer economy. The brand has masterfully engineered a viral moment, harnessing social media, urban economic policies, and fundamental consumer curiosity. However, the initial spectacle of the 13-hour waitlist is proving to be a demanding master. The early signs of consumer fatigue, operational strain, and the harsh precedent set by earlier ‘queue kings’ like Tai Er suggest a challenging road ahead.
The ultimate verdict will not be delivered by social media influencers or opening-week headlines, but by the silent aggregation of millions of individual decisions: the choice to return for a second meal. For Kaojiang, and for any brand chasing similar hype, the transition from a marketing-led ‘traffic’ engine to a product-and-operations-led ‘brand’ is the only path to sustainable value. Investors watching this space would be wise to discount the euphoria of day-one queues and focus intently on the harder, slower metrics of customer satisfaction, unit economics, and repeat visitation rates. In the end, the most sustainable businesses are built not on waiting, but on wanting to come back.