A stabilization story
ICBC's Q4 2025 earnings call, held Tuesday, delivered the third consecutive flat net interest margin print at 1.28%. The result is the strongest evidence in 18 months that the NIM compression cycle has bottomed.
The key lines
- NIM: 1.28% (Q4 2025), flat QoQ
- Net fee and commission income: +6.4% YoY (Q4 2025)
- NPL ratio: 1.34%, -4 bps QoQ
- Capital adequacy ratio: 19.1%, +20 bps QoQ
Management guided FY2026 NIM to "broadly stable at Q4 2025 levels" — the first flat-forward guidance since the 2023 LPR cuts began. The NPL ratio guidance was similarly dovish: "below 1.35% for the full year."
What it means for the sector
The Big Six earnings season is now consensus to print NIM in a 1.20%–1.45% band, with the larger lenders (ICBC, CCB, ABC) stabilizing and the smaller joint-stock banks (CMB, CITIC) still seeing mild compression.
The NIM bottom is in. The question now is fee income, not spread. — Macquarie, China banks research
Watch list
- Q1 2026 results (late April)
- The 1-year LPR fix at the May 20 monthly announcement
- The PBOC's Q1 monetary policy report (May 10)
