Eliza Wong
– Trump administration expands Federal Reserve chair candidate list to 11 names
– Three new contenders include Wall Street strategist David Zervos (大卫·泽沃斯), former Fed Governor Larry Lindsey (拉里·林赛), and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder (里克·里德)
– Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (斯科特·贝森特) conducting interviews to narrow candidates before Trump decision
– Extended selection timeline may prevent disruptive “shadow chair” scenario
– Most candidates support Fed independence despite advocating institutional reforms
With unprecedented attention on Federal Reserve leadership, the Trump administration has significantly expanded its list of potential successors to Chair Jerome Powell. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (斯科特·贝森特) confirmed the Fed chair candidate list now includes 11 individuals, introducing three prominent Wall Street figures previously undisclosed in deliberations. This development signals a broadening search that could reshape monetary policy direction at a critical economic juncture. The expanded Fed chair candidate list reflects deliberate consideration of diverse perspectives from both public service and private finance backgrounds. As markets monitor this pivotal transition, the extended selection timeline offers temporary stability while raising fundamental questions about the Fed’s future governance framework.
The Expanding Fed Chair Candidate List
The Trump administration’s search for Federal Reserve leadership has entered a new phase with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (斯科特·贝森特) confirming the candidate pool now encompasses 11 individuals. This expanded Fed chair candidate list represents one of the most comprehensive selection processes in recent Fed history, spanning current officials, former policymakers, and private sector heavyweights.
New Contenders Enter the Arena
Three previously undisclosed candidates have joined the Fed chair candidate list:
– David Zervos (大卫·泽沃斯): Chief market strategist at investment bank Jefferies, known for unconventional policy views
– Larry Lindsey (拉里·林赛): Former Fed Governor and White House economic advisor under George W. Bush
– Rick Rieder (里克·里德): BlackRock’s global fixed income CIO managing $2.4 trillion in assets
These additions bring significant Wall Street experience to the Fed chair candidate list, contrasting with traditional central banking backgrounds. Rieder’s inclusion is particularly noteworthy given BlackRock’s outsized role in global financial markets and previous Fed consulting contracts.
Previously Confirmed Candidates
The eight previously acknowledged contenders on the Fed chair candidate list include:
– Michelle Bowman (米歇尔·鲍曼): Fed Vice Chair for Supervision
– Christopher Waller (克里斯托弗·沃勒): Federal Reserve Board Governor
– Philip Jefferson (菲利普·杰斐逊): Fed Vice Chair
– Lorie Logan (洛莉·洛根): Dallas Federal Reserve President
– James Bullard (詹姆斯·布拉德): Former St. Louis Fed President
– Kevin Hassett (凯文·哈西特): Trump White House economic advisor
– Kevin Warsh (凯文·沃什): Former Fed Governor
– Marc Summerlin (马克·萨默林): Bush administration economic advisor
This diverse group combines institutional knowledge with external perspectives, creating a complex evaluation matrix for the selection committee.
The Deliberative Selection Process
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (斯科特·贝森特) has assumed central responsibility for managing the expanded Fed chair candidate list. Officials describe the approach as a “deliberative process” with multiple vetting stages before reaching President Trump’s desk.
Bessent’s Gatekeeper Role
As the administration’s point person, Scott Bessent (斯科特·贝森特) is conducting initial interviews with all 11 candidates on the Fed chair candidate list. His mandate includes:
– Assessing policy alignment with administration priorities
– Evaluating crisis management capabilities
– Gauging Senate confirmability
– Determining philosophical compatibility with potential board members
Bessent will ultimately present a narrowed shortlist to President Trump, who retains final decision authority. The Treasury Secretary has emphasized Trump’s “open attitude” toward private sector candidates, expanding beyond traditional central banking circles.
Timeline Uncertainties
Officials acknowledge no definitive deadline for concluding the selection process. Key timing considerations include:
– Powell’s term expiration in May 2024
– Upcoming FOMC meeting schedules
– 2024 electoral calendar implications
– Potential market disruption thresholds
This deliberate pacing contrasts with previous Fed chair selections, which typically followed more compressed timelines. The extended Fed chair candidate list evaluation period reflects both the high stakes and complex political calculus involved.
Monetary Policy Implications
The expanded Fed chair candidate list emerges against a backdrop of intense debate about the central bank’s proper role. While candidates differ on specific reform proposals, most have publicly endorsed maintaining Fed independence—a crucial consideration for market stability.
The “Shadow Chair” Concern
Reform vs. Tradition BalanceDespite varied perspectives among the Fed chair candidate list contenders, common themes emerge:
– 9 of 11 candidates support maintaining Fed independence
– 7 have advocated for transparency enhancements
– 5 propose rule-based monetary policy frameworks
– 3 favor stricter regulatory approaches
Notable reform advocates include Kevin Warsh (凯文·沃什), who has criticized quantitative easing, and Larry Lindsey (拉里·林赛), known for challenging conventional inflation models. Yet all leading candidates possess substantial monetary policy experience, suggesting evolutionary rather than revolutionary change.
Market Reactions and Analysis
Financial markets have responded cautiously to the expanding Fed chair candidate list news. The deliberate pace appears to offset concerns about radical policy shifts, with major indices holding steady following the announcement.
Stability Considerations
Several factors make the extended Fed chair candidate list review period market-positive:
– Reduced uncertainty about immediate leadership changes
– Continuity in current policy implementation
– Demonstrated commitment to thorough vetting
– Avoidance of perceived political interference
Market analysts note that Treasury yields showed minimal movement after the news broke, suggesting investor comfort with the process. The Fed chair candidate list expansion actually signals stability, with Powell remaining firmly in charge during the evaluation period.
Potential Transition Scenarios
Based on historical transitions and candidate profiles, analysts project:
– 70% probability of current Fed official selection
– 25% likelihood of former government economist appointment
– 5% chance of private sector candidate choice
Wall Street consensus suggests continuity candidates like Philip Jefferson (菲利普·杰斐逊) or Christopher Waller (克里斯托弗·沃勒) maintain advantage, though dark horse contenders could gain traction during interviews. Financial institutions have begun scenario-planning for each potential outcome on the Fed chair candidate list.
Political Context and Ramifications
President Trump’s complex relationship with current Chair Powell adds political dimensions to the Fed chair candidate list review. Despite frequent public criticism of Powell’s policies, Trump has consistently stopped short of suggesting premature removal.
Trump-Powell Dynamic
The President’s approach reflects:
– Recognition of legal constraints on Fed chair removal
– Awareness of market sensitivity to central bank independence
– Willingness to use criticism as policy leverage
– Strategic ambiguity regarding transition timing
Trump’s recent comments about “allowing lawsuits against Powell to proceed” represent rhetorical positioning rather than substantive legal strategy. The Fed chair candidate list development suggests the administration prefers structured transition over confrontational removal.
Personnel Implications
Beyond the chair position, the Fed faces additional leadership changes:
– Stephen Miran (斯蒂芬·米兰) not expected to remain as governor
– Potential board vacancies in 2024
– Regional president rotations
These shifts could influence the new chair’s effectiveness, particularly regarding regulatory and research functions. The expanded Fed chair candidate list may foreshadow broader personnel strategy adjustments within the Federal Reserve System.
Historical Precedents and Selection Patterns
The current 11-person Fed chair candidate list exceeds typical modern precedent. Historical comparisons reveal:
Expansion Beyond Norms
Previous Fed chair searches featured:
– 3-5 serious contenders (Volcker succession)
– 6 candidates interviewed (Bernanke replacement)
– 4 finalists (Yellen to Powell transition)
The unprecedented scope of this Fed chair candidate list reflects both political circumstances and evolving expectations for central bank leadership. The inclusion of multiple Wall Street figures continues a trend toward private sector influence that began with Geithner’s consideration during Obama’s presidency.
Private Sector Representation
While uncommon historically, private sector Fed chairs include:
– William McChesney Martin (Bache & Co)
– G. William Miller (Textron)
Current candidates like Rick Rieder (里克·里德) would represent the first investment management executive to lead the Fed. This potential shift toward market-oriented leadership reflects changing views about central banking expertise.
This expanded Fed chair candidate list presents both opportunities and challenges for monetary policy continuity. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (斯科特·贝森特) faces the delicate task of balancing presidential preferences with institutional stability needs. The deliberate evaluation timeline allows thorough assessment of each contender’s ability to navigate complex economic crosscurrents while preserving the Fed’s credibility. Financial professionals should monitor Treasury Department statements for clues about shortlist development while maintaining current policy implementation assumptions until clearer signals emerge. The coming months will test whether this unprecedented selection approach strengthens Fed governance or introduces new uncertainties.
