Executive Summary
- Second-hand home transaction volume in major Chinese cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Chongqing surged by up to 294% week-over-week, hitting record levels not seen in years.
- High inventory and extended selling periods continue to exert downward pressure on prices, with national averages declining for 41 consecutive months.
- Regional disparities are evident, with cities like Chengdu showing price stability while others struggle with oversupply and longer de-listing cycles.
- Policy measures and post-holiday demand releases are key drivers, highlighting opportunities for investors in specific segments and locations.
- The second-hand home transaction volume growth contrasts with weaker new home sales, underscoring a shift in buyer preferences and market dynamics.
Unprecedented Surge in Second-Hand Home Transactions
China’s property market is witnessing a remarkable rebound in second-hand home transactions, with volumes soaring to unprecedented levels across key urban centers. This surge in second-hand home transaction volume reflects a complex interplay of pent-up demand, policy adjustments, and evolving buyer behavior. Investors and analysts are closely monitoring these trends for insights into the health of the real estate sector and broader economic implications.
Key City Highlights: Shenzhen and Shanghai Lead the Charge
In Shenzhen, second-hand home transaction volume reached 1,696 units during Week 42 of 2025 (October 13-19), marking a 39.1% week-over-week increase and the highest weekly figure in nearly six months. Data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association highlighted the Longgang district as a hotspot, with 502 transactions recorded. Similarly, Shanghai saw a single-day net signings peak of 1,266 units on October 12, the highest in five months, according to Shanghai Online Real Estate. These spikes underscore the robust recovery in prime markets, driven by factors like deferred purchases from the National Day holiday and improved market sentiment.
Nationwide Trends and Cumulative Growth
Beyond individual cities, the second-hand home transaction volume across 14 major cities climbed to 108,617 units in September, up 5% month-over-month and 13.12% year-over-year, as reported by Linping Residential Big Data Research Institute. This represents the highest September volume since 2022. For the first nine months of 2025, cumulative transactions in these cities totaled 1,023,207 units, a 9.4% year-over-year increase and the highest since 2020. CRIC monitoring data corroborates this, showing a 9% year-over-year rise in second-hand home transaction volume across 30 key cities, contrasting with declining new home sales. This divergence highlights a structural shift toward the resale market, fueled by affordability and inventory availability.
Drivers Behind the Transaction Volume Boom
The explosive growth in second-hand home transaction volume is not accidental; it stems from a combination of macroeconomic factors and localized stimuli. Understanding these drivers is crucial for forecasting future trends and identifying investment opportunities.
Post-Holiday Demand Release and Seasonal Effects
Many experts attribute the spike to postponed transactions from the October National Day holiday, when travel reduced market activity. Leyoujia Research Center noted that Shenzhen’s second-hand home transaction volume on October 19 surged 28% compared to the previous Sunday, far exceeding holiday levels. This pattern suggests that seasonal fluctuations and pent-up demand are significant contributors. Additionally, increased property viewings and buyer engagement indicate renewed confidence, though it remains tempered by economic uncertainties.
Policy Impacts and Market Sentiment
Government policies have played a pivotal role in revitalizing the second-hand home transaction volume. In Shanghai, for instance, policy adjustments earlier in the year have begun to yield results, with September transactions rising 2.7% month-over-month and 27% year-over-year, per China Index Academy data. Eased mortgage rules and tax incentives in select cities have made second-hand homes more accessible, particularly for first-time buyers and those seeking budget-friendly options. However, the effectiveness varies by region, with core areas benefiting more than peripheries.
Price Dynamics and Inventory Challenges
While the second-hand home transaction volume paints a picture of resurgence, underlying price pressures reveal a more nuanced reality. High inventory levels and extended de-listing cycles continue to challenge market stability.
Continuous Price Declines and National Averages
According to the China Real Estate Index System 100 Cities Price Index, the average second-hand home price fell 0.74% month-over-month and 7.38% year-over-year in September, extending a 41-month streak of declines. This persistent downturn is largely due to an oversupply of listings; Linping data shows that in September, 14 major cities had约2.02 million units of second-hand homes listed, up 1.1% month-over-month and marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The average de-listing cycle lengthened to 17.7 months, up 6.4% from August, indicating that sellers are struggling to achieve desired prices without concessions.
High Inventory and Selling Period Extensions
Zhang Bo (张波), Director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, emphasized that the rise in second-hand home transaction volume is largely a ‘price-for-volume’ phenomenon. Online data from Anjuke shows that the average listing duration for second-hand homes across 100 cities reached 95 days, with smaller cities facing 99 days. This extended timeline reflects buyer reluctance amid economic headwinds and a preference for discounted properties. In essence, the volume increase comes at the cost of price reductions, with unadjusted listings languishing on the market and dragging down overall metrics.
Regional Variations and Market Exceptions
Not all markets are uniformly affected; certain cities demonstrate resilience or even price appreciation, highlighting the importance of localized analysis for investors.
Stability in Markets like Chengdu
Chengdu stands out as an exception, with its second-hand home transaction volume accompanied by price stability. CRIC Sichuan monitoring data reveals that in September, the average transaction price in Chengdu’s central urban areas was 15,218 yuan per square meter, up 1.6% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, reaching a yearly high. Analysts note that prices have stabilized above zero growth for multiple months, signaling a firmer market base. This contrasts with cities where high supply suppresses values, underscoring the role of regional economic vitality and buyer demographics in shaping outcomes.
Urban-Rural and Tier-Based Divergences
The second-hand home transaction volume growth is uneven across city tiers. CRIC analysis points to a ‘collapse’ in mid-range upgrade demand, with transactions concentrating in core areas of cities like Beijing and Hangzhou, while Shanghai sees activity shift to suburbs. This polarization means that investors must discern between markets driven by rigid demand versus those reliant on speculative interest. For instance, low total price segments are dominating sales, whereas luxury properties maintain steady but limited traction.
Implications for Investors and Future Outlook
The surge in second-hand home transaction volume offers both opportunities and warnings for stakeholders. Navigating this landscape requires a balanced approach that accounts for volatility and regulatory shifts.
Short-Term Opportunities and Risk Mitigation
In the near term, the high second-hand home transaction volume in cities with stable prices, such as Chengdu, may present buying opportunities for income-oriented investors. However, the widespread price declines advise caution; focusing on properties with strong rental yields or redevelopment potential could mitigate risks. Diversifying across regions with varying inventory cycles—such as targeting cities with shorter de-listing periods—can also enhance portfolio resilience. Monitoring policy announcements from bodies like the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (住房和城乡建设部) is essential, as further stimuli could amplify gains.
Long-Term Trends and Regulatory Environment
Over the longer horizon, the second-hand home transaction volume trajectory will hinge on broader economic recovery and regulatory frameworks. China’s emphasis on ‘housing for living, not speculation’ suggests that speculative bubbles will remain suppressed, favoring steady, demand-driven growth. Investors should anticipate continued innovation in financing tools and digital platforms to streamline transactions. Forward-looking strategies might include partnerships with local agencies for data-driven insights and alignment with sustainability trends, such as energy-efficient retrofits in older properties.
Synthesizing Market Insights and Forward Guidance
The data unequivocally shows that second-hand home transaction volume has entered a phase of robust growth, driven by cyclical demand and policy support. Yet, this optimism is tempered by persistent price softness and inventory glut, particularly in lower-tier cities. For investors, the key takeaway is to prioritize markets with balanced supply-demand dynamics and proven resilience. As the second-hand home transaction volume continues to evolve, staying informed through reliable sources and adapting to regional nuances will be critical. Consider consulting with financial advisors or leveraging market reports to capitalize on this dynamic segment while managing exposure to downside risks.