Executive Summary
– BlackRock’s HPS Corporate Lending Fund (HLEND) faced redemption requests totaling 9.3% of its net asset value, breaching its 5% quarterly limit and forcing the firm to defer portions of the payout to the next quarter.
– This incident is part of a broader private credit liquidity crisis, with peers like Blue Owl Capital, Blackstone (黑石), and Cliffwater also experiencing significant redemption pressures, eroding investor confidence in the asset class.
– Underlying asset values, particularly in software and SaaS companies, are being aggressively revalued downwards due to the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on business models and pricing power.
– The foundational ‘fee base growth’ narrative for private equity giants is under severe threat, with potential implications for their stock valuations and long-term profitability as market sentiment shifts.
– Investors must reassess exposure to private credit funds, focusing on liquidity terms, underlying asset quality, and the sustainability of fee income in a higher-rate, AI-impacted environment.
The Gathering Storm in Private Credit
A liquidity crisis is spreading through the private credit market, catching even the largest asset managers off guard. The immediate trigger was a surge in redemption requests at BlackRock’s (贝莱德) $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund (HLEND), but this is merely a symptom of a deeper, systemic reassessment of risk. This private credit liquidity crisis challenges the long-held belief that these illiquid, high-yielding assets are stable ‘core’ holdings for institutional portfolios. As redemption gates slam shut and valuations adjust, sophisticated investors worldwide are questioning the resilience of a market that has ballooned to over $800 billion in the U.S. alone. The convergence of aggressive monetary policy, technological disruption, and shifting investor appetite has created a perfect storm, making liquidity management the paramount concern for fund managers and their limited partners.
The Liquidity Crisis Unfolds: Redemption Surges at Major Funds
The recent wave of redemption requests has exposed the inherent liquidity mismatch in private credit funds, which invest in long-term, illiquid loans but often offer quarterly redemption windows to investors. This structure is now being tested to its limits.
BlackRock’s HLEND Fund Triggers Deferral Mechanism
BlackRock’s HPS Corporate Lending Fund received approximately $1.2 billion in redemption requests, representing 9.3% of its net asset value. This figure shattered the fund’s contractual 5% quarterly redemption limit, compelling BlackRock to invoke a deferral mechanism. The firm announced it would only allow redemptions for 5% of the fund’s shares, equating to about $620 million. The remaining 4.3% of requests, totaling roughly $580 million, were deferred to the next quarter. The market reaction was swift and severe: BlackRock’s stock price fell over 7% on the day of the announcement and continued to slide, losing more than 10% of its value within five trading sessions. This event signaled that no firm, however large, was immune to the unfolding private credit liquidity crisis.
Widespread Redemption Pressures Across the Industry
Underlying Asset Devaluation: AI’s Impact on Software CompaniesAt the heart of this private credit liquidity crisis is a fundamental re-rating of the value of underlying assets. The private credit market, particularly in the U.S., has been heavily concentrated in loans to software and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies. These firms were once darlings for their predictable cash flows and asset-light models. However, the rapid ascent of generative AI is undermining their economic moats.
Software and SaaS Assets Face Value Erosion
AI advancements, especially the proliferation of free or low-cost core functionalities, are directly attacking the pricing power and long-term viability of many traditional software businesses. An investment professional noted that secondary market prices and transaction data already reflect repriced default risk expectations. For instance, ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW), a bellwether software company, saw its stock price plummet from $184 to $105 between November 2025 and March 2026—a 43% drop far exceeding the broader market. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple compressed from 99x to 65x, signaling deep market skepticism about future growth in an AI-dominated landscape.
Another telling example is Cornerstone OnDemand, a company with debt held by multiple private credit funds. Since its 2021 privatization, the price of its term loan has fallen approximately 10 percentage points, trading around 83 cents on the dollar by late 2025. This stands in stark contrast to the average carrying value of 97 cents held by six Business Development Companies (BDCs), indicating a significant mark-to-market loss.
Market Indicators Reflect Growing Concerns
The “Fee Base Growth” Myth Under PressureFor years, private credit has been the profit engine for large alternative asset managers. Pension funds, insurers, sovereign wealth funds, and high-net-worth individuals poured capital into the space, driving assets under management (AUM) and, crucially, stable management fees. This ‘fee base growth’ story supported soaring valuations for publicly traded PE firms. However, the crack in the underlying asset valuation foundation now threatens this entire model.
Historical Growth and Concentration in Software
The U.S. private credit AUM exploded from about $200 billion in 2015 to over $800 billion by 2021, an 18% compound annual growth rate. Software became the central sector for both private equity and private credit. Software companies, often lacking physical collateral, turned to private lenders instead of traditional banks. High valuation expectations and lucrative merger activity, driven by firms like Vista Equity Partners and Thoma Bravo, fueled a decade-long boom. Vista founder Robert F. Smith (罗伯特・F・史密斯) and Thoma Bravo co-founder Orlando Bravo (奥兰多・布拉沃) saw their wealth soar into the tens of billions, largely built on software asset arbitrage.
Current Challenges and Fee Income Risks
Market Implications and Strategic Forward GuidanceThe ongoing private credit liquidity crisis demands a strategic reassessment from all market participants. The era of easy growth fueled by ever-rising asset valuations is likely over, replaced by a focus on fundamental credit analysis and robust liquidity management.