In a move signaling a strategic pivot for China’s competitive coffee and fast-food sector, Cudi Coffee (库迪咖啡) has officially announced the termination of its store-wide 9.9 yuan promotion, a campaign that once defined the low-price wars. This decision mirrors broader price adjustments across major players like KFC (肯德基), McDonald’s (麦当劳), and Luckin Coffee (瑞幸咖啡), highlighting a critical shift from volume-driven growth to sustainable profitability. For institutional investors and market analysts, this marks the end of the 9.9 yuan coffee promotion era and the beginning of a more rational pricing landscape with significant implications for equity valuations and consumer trends.
Executive Summary: Key Market Takeaways
Before diving into the details, here are the critical insights from this development:
- Promotion Wind-Down: Cudi Coffee will end its “全场9.9元不限量” (store-wide 9.9 yuan unlimited) promotion on January 31, 2026, shifting to a tiered pricing model with a special-price zone, while maintaining some 9.9 yuan offers.
- Industry-Wide Trend: This move aligns with recent price hikes by KFC, McDonald’s, Luckin, and other fast-food and tea chains, indicating a coordinated retreat from aggressive discounting.
- Cost-Driven Rationale: Rising raw material costs, particularly for fruits, tea, and coconut-based ingredients, coupled with increased delivery channel expenses, are primary drivers behind the price adjustments.
- Investment Implications: The end of the 9.9 yuan coffee promotion suggests a focus on margin improvement over market share, potentially boosting profitability for listed companies but posing risks to volume growth.
- Consumer Impact: Price normalization may alter purchasing behavior, with brands balancing quality and affordability in a post-subsidy environment.
The Demise of Cudi’s Flagship 9.9 Yuan Campaign
The announcement from Cudi Coffee reverberated through the market on January 31, as the company confirmed that its iconic “全场9.9元不限量” promotion will conclude at 24:00 on January 31, 2026. Starting February 1, 2026, the brand will introduce a “特价专区” (special-price zone) where select products will retain the 9.9 yuan price point, while non-promotional items revert to standard retail pricing. This structured approach aims to mitigate customer backlash while steering toward sustainable revenue streams. For new stores, the inaugural month discount adjusts from 8.8 yuan to 9.9 yuan vouchers, reflecting a calibrated uplift. In response to inquiries, a Cudi spokesperson stated, “库迪始终致力于为消费者提供高品质高性价比的咖啡产品” (Cudi remains committed to providing consumers with high-quality, cost-effective coffee products), emphasizing continuity in value proposition despite the pricing shift.
Historical Context and Strategic Reversal
Cudi Coffee launched the 9.9 yuan promotion in February 2023, intensifying it to 8.8 yuan by May that year, as part of a aggressive market-entry strategy to challenge incumbents like Luckin Coffee. The company’s Chief Strategy Officer Li Yingbo (李颖波) had publicly pledged in 2024 that the promotion would last three years, with subsidies for franchisees extending through 2026. This commitment fueled rapid expansion, with over 18,000 stores now operational, according to the brand’s官网 (official website). The premature cessation—effectively marking the end of the 9.9 yuan coffee promotion—suggests recalibration due to mounting financial pressures, underscoring the volatility of discount-driven growth models in China’s saturated F&B landscape.
Broader Industry Trend: A Wave of Price Adjustments
Cudi’s decision is not isolated; it coincides with a series of price hikes across China’s quick-service restaurant (QSR) and beverage sector, signaling a collective move toward price normalization. Major chains have incrementally raised prices, citing operational necessities and cost inflation.
Case Studies: KFC, McDonald’s, and Luckin Lead the Way
KFC (肯德基), operated by Yum China (百胜中国), adjusted delivery prices for select items by an average of 0.8 yuan starting January 26, while keeping dine-in rates stable. For instance, the “汁汁和牛堡” (Juicy Wagyu Burger) now costs 36.5 yuan for delivery versus 32.5 yuan dine-in—a 4 yuan gap. Similarly, “吮指原味鸡” (Original Recipe Chicken) shows a 2.5 yuan delivery premium for a single piece, escalating to 15 yuan for a six-piece pack. KFC attributed this to “更好地应对运营成本的变化” (better coping with changes in operational costs), maintaining that promotional bundles like “疯狂星期四” (Crazy Thursday) remain unchanged. McDonald’s (麦当劳) followed suit in late 2025, increasing prices by 0.5 to 1 yuan across delivery and in-store channels, stating its commitment to “高品质的餐食和超值的选择” (high-quality meals and great value choices). Luckin Coffee (瑞幸咖啡), a key rival, has notably reduced its 9.9 yuan product assortment since 2024, with many classic items now priced at 12.9 yuan, as subsidies wane and cost pressures mount.
Additional Players Joining the Fray
Beyond coffee and burgers, other brands have adjusted pricing. Sally’s (萨莉亚), known for affordable Western fare, raised some dish prices by 1-2 yuan in 2025. Kawanka (卡旺卡), a tea chain that gained viral fame, increased popular drink prices by 1-2 yuan in September 2025, citing原料成本 (raw material costs). Naixue’s Tea (奈雪的茶) elevated breakfast set prices in Guangzhou and Shenzhen from 9.9 yuan to 15.9 yuan. This collective action reinforces the trend away from deep discounting, emphasizing that the end of the 9.9 yuan coffee promotion is part of a larger industry reset.
Underlying Drivers: Cost Pressures and Supply Chain Dynamics
The primary catalyst for these price adjustments is escalating input costs, compounded by logistical challenges and shifting consumer delivery habits. A deeper analysis reveals multifaceted pressures squeezing margins.
Surge in Raw Material Prices
Interviews with供应链 (supply chain) vendors highlight significant inflation in key ingredients. For example, a茶饮品牌供应链的负责人 (tea drink brand supply chain负责人) noted that “椰子水、椰浆一类的原料，价格涨幅高达300%” (prices for coconut water and coconut milk have surged up to 300%), driven by Southeast Asian crop reductions and rising海运成本 (shipping costs). Official data supports this: according to the农业农村部全国农产品批发市场价格系统 (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs National Agricultural Product Wholesale Market Price System), the average wholesale price for lemons—a staple in beverages—reached 14.87 yuan per kilogram in September 2025, nearly double the 7.84 yuan per kilogram from a year prior. Macro indicators from the国家统计局 (National Bureau of Statistics) show December 2025’s全国居民消费价格指数 (CPI) rose 0.8% year-on-year, with鲜果价格 (fresh fruit prices) up 4.4%, underscoring broader inflationary trends. These cost hikes directly erode profitability, forcing brands to reconsider pricing strategies.
Impact of Delivery Channels on Profitability
Another critical factor is the growing reliance on外卖渠道 (delivery channels), which impose additional fees and commissions. Brands like KFC and Luckin have high delivery penetration, and as this比例 (ratio) increases, it amplifies cost sensitivity. Delivery price premiums help offset platform charges and operational overheads, but they also risk alienating cost-conscious consumers. The shift highlights a strategic dilemma: balancing volume growth from delivery with margin preservation. This dynamic is integral to understanding why the end of the 9.9 yuan coffee promotion is necessary—it allows companies to recalibrate盈利结构 (profit structures) for long-term health.
Market Implications for Investors and Executives
For sophisticated market participants, these developments offer actionable insights into sectoral trends and investment opportunities. The transition from price wars to price normalization carries profound implications for equity performance and corporate strategy.
Shifting from Volume to Value: A New Investment Thesis
The end of the 9.9 yuan coffee promotion signals a pivotal turn toward margin enhancement. Investors should monitor companies like Cudi Coffee (though privately held, its moves affect public rivals), Yum China (YUMC), and Starbucks (SBUX) in China, as well as Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) for signs of improved profitability. Historical data shows that sustained discounting often leads to稀释每股收益 (diluted earnings per share) erosion; thus, price hikes could bolster financial metrics. However, risks include potential volume declines if consumers resist higher prices. Analysts recommend focusing on brands with strong loyalty and diversified product offerings, as they are better positioned to navigate this shift. The end of the 9.9 yuan coffee promotion may herald a more stable earnings environment, appealing to value-oriented investors.
Regulatory and Economic Context: Navigating Inflationary Headwinds
Broader economic conditions play a role. The modest CPI increase of 0.8% suggests contained inflation, but sector-specific spikes in food costs pose challenges. The中国人民银行 (People’s Bank of China) has maintained accommodative policies, yet supply-side constraints persist. For corporate executives, this necessitates agile cost management and potential hedging strategies. Regulatory scrutiny on pricing collusion is low, given the market-driven nature of adjustments, but brands must communicate changes transparently to avoid consumer backlash. The end of the 9.9 yuan coffee promotion aligns with macroeconomic stabilization efforts, as highlighted in recent国家统计局 (NBS) reports on consumer spending resilience.
Synthesis and Forward-Looking Guidance
The culmination of these trends points to a matured phase in China’s F&B market, where hyper-competition gives way to sustainable growth. Cudi Coffee’s move to terminate its 9.9 yuan promotion is a bellwether for the industry, reflecting inevitable adjustments to cost realities and profit imperatives. For investors, this signals opportunities in companies with robust供应链 (supply chains) and pricing power, while cautioning against overexposure to purely volume-driven models. Consumers may experience slight price increases, but the emphasis on quality and service could enhance brand equity long-term. As the end of the 9.9 yuan coffee promotion reshapes market dynamics, stakeholders should prioritize due diligence on cost structures and consumer sentiment metrics.
To stay ahead in this evolving landscape, institutional investors are advised to review quarterly earnings reports from key players, monitor raw material price indices, and engage with management on strategy updates. The call to action is clear: embrace the shift toward rationality, as the end of the 9.9 yuan coffee promotion marks not a retreat, but a strategic advance toward enduring profitability in China’s vibrant equity markets.