Executive Summary: Key Takeaways from the Bull Market Surge
– Robust economic indicators, including retail sales and industrial output, provide a solid foundation for market gains, signaling a recovery that investors should not ignore.
– Fiscal data shows positive trends, with tax revenue growth and a surge in securities transaction stamp duty reflecting economic momentum and investor confidence.
– High-tech manufacturing and new quality productive forces are leading industrial growth, offering structural opportunities in sectors like robotics and semiconductors.
– The market narrative has shifted from speculation to earnings validation, particularly in tech sectors, with performance data supporting valuations.
– Capital inflows into ETFs, such as the A500 ETF, underscore growing investor belief in the long-term rally, making it crucial to stop doubting the bull market and focus on strategic allocations.
Market Momentum Ignites Amid Positive Catalysts
Recent weeks have witnessed a flurry of activity in Chinese equity markets, compelling investors to reassess their skepticism. On December 18, the operational closure of the 海南自贸港 (Hainan Free Trade Port) triggered a surge in Hainan-related stocks, highlighting policy-driven optimism. Just days later, on December 21, a performance at Wang Leehom’s (王力宏) Chengdu concert featuring six 宇树机器人 (Unitree Robotics) robots executing synchronized dances and complex flips went viral, even earning praise from Elon Musk. This event spurred a rally in robotics concepts, demonstrating how technological breakthroughs are capturing market imagination. Amidst ongoing adjustments and debates over fundamentals, these bullish catalysts have swiftly reversed sentiment, with indices like the 上证指数 (Shanghai Composite Index) and 沪深300 (CSI 300 Index) posting gains. For those still hesitant, it’s time to stop doubting the bull market—the evidence is mounting that this rally is built on substance, not just speculation.
Economic Indicators Provide a Solid Foundation
Contrary to lingering doubts, China’s bull market is not a house of cards. Multiple economic metrics have quietly strengthened, offering a bedrock of support that aligns with macroeconomic improvement. This shift provides the底气 (confidence) needed for sustained market gains, making it imperative to stop doubting the bull market based on outdated perceptions.
Domestic Demand as a Strategic Pillar
Internal consumption remains a压舱石 (ballast stone) for the economy, and recent policy underscores its elevated importance. On December 15, 求是杂志 (Qiushi Journal) published a pivotal article titled “扩大内需是战略之举 (Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move),” which elevated domestic demand from a “basic立足点 (standing point)” to a “战略基点 (strategic base).” This signals long-term commitment rather than short-term fixes. The article outlines a dual-path approach: stimulating demand through increased disposable income and confidence, while using supply-side innovations—like tech upgrades and regulatory improvements—to create new消费欲望 (consumption desires). For instance, the “以旧换新 (trade-in)” program has already shown effects, though its pull may be tapering. Data from January to November 2025 reveals社会消费品零售总额 (total retail sales of consumer goods) grew by 4% year-on-year, with服务零售额 (service retail sales) outpacing at 5.4%, indicating a resilient consumption shift. Looking ahead, integrated consumption in automotive and housing sectors, along with绿色消费 (green consumption), will be key drivers during the “十五五 (15th Five-Year Plan)” period.
Fiscal Data Reveals Recovery Momentum
Fiscal metrics further dispel pessimism. According to the 财政部 (Ministry of Finance), from January to November,全国一般公共预算收入 (national general public budget revenue) exceeded 20 trillion yuan, rising 0.8% year-on-year and completing 91.21% of the annual budget—2.34 percentage points ahead of last year’s pace. Expenditure topped 24 trillion yuan, up 1.4%, maintaining necessary fiscal intensity. The standout is税收收入 (tax revenue), often an economic barometer, which grew 1.79% cumulatively, with the pace accelerating, hinting at修复 (repair) in endogenous growth动力 (momentum). Notably,证券交易印花税 (securities transaction stamp duty) skyrocketed by 70.7% year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of gains above 70%. This surge is not just a reflection of活跃度 (liveliness) in capital markets but a vote of confidence from investors betting on economic recovery. As these figures show, the market is speaking through行动 (action), urging observers to stop doubting the bull market.
Industrial Strength and New Quality Productive Forces
Industrial data continues to impress, though many have yet to fully grasp its implications. Per the 国家统计局 (National Bureau of Statistics), November’s规模以上工业增加值 (value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size) increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with the January-November period seeing 6.0% growth. The real story lies in structural nuances:制造业 (manufacturing) expanded by 6.4% in the first eleven months, outperforming overall industrial growth and serving as a key engine. Within this,新质生产力 (new quality productive forces) are the “high-energy fuel,” with高技术制造业 (high-tech manufacturing) soaring 9.2% year-on-year. Specific outputs like工业机器人 (industrial robots),服务机器人 (service robots), and集成电路 (integrated circuits) surged by 29.2%, 17.6%, and 10.6%, respectively. These sectors act as a强劲的“芯”脏 (powerful “core” heart), pumping innovation across supply chains and driving高端化 (high-end) upgrades. Skeptics often fixate on宏观总量增速 (macro aggregate growth rates) or科技股估值 (tech stock valuations), overlooking the structural opportunities from产业升级 (industrial upgrading). This认知差距 (cognitive gap) represents a财富差 (wealth gap) for astute investors who stop doubting the bull market and focus on these transformative trends.
Case Study: Robotics and Semiconductor Leadership
The performance of 宇树机器人 (Unitree Robotics) at the Chengdu concert is emblematic of broader advancements. Initially met with amusement—网友 (netizens) joked about “年初脑血栓，年尾后空翻 (early-year cerebral thrombosis, year-end backflips)”—the rapid progress underscores China’s tech prowess. In markets, this translates to tangible growth: the robotics sector’s production spikes are backed by policy support from initiatives like “中国制造2025 (Made in China 2025)” and global AI trends. Similarly, semiconductor output gains reflect strategic self-reliance efforts, reducing import dependencies. Investors should note that these aren’t mere stories but data-driven realities, as seen in the 9.2% high-tech manufacturing growth. For a deeper dive, refer to the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest industrial reports here for updated datasets.
From Storytelling to Earnings Validation: The Market’s Evolution
A critical misperception persists: many still view this rally through a “讲故事 (storytelling)” lens, but the market has pivoted to a实打实的“产业牛” (substantive “industrial bull”). Ignited earlier this year by breakthroughs like DeepSeek’s AI models, the tech theme has endured, with doubts often centering on泡沫 (bubbles). However, the narrative has evolved from预期驱动 (expectation-driven) phases to报表验证 (earnings validation). According to 德邦证券 (Debon Securities) research, the electronics sector’s revenue grew 18.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with归母净利润 (net profit attributable to shareholders) jumping 37%, outperforming broader markets. This业绩为王 (performance-is-king) logic is evident in specific arenas like算力 (computing power). In the first half, the国证算力指数 (National Computing Power Index) rose about 25% on themes of AI demand and国产替代 (domestic substitution). By the second half, as北美四大云厂商 (North America’s four major cloud providers) ramped up server investments and domestic智算中心 (AI computing centers) launched, the index soared over 80%. This disparity between “预期价格 (expected price)” and “落地价值 (realized value)” underscores the market’s maturation. Thus, macroeconomic stabilization, coupled with new quality productive forces growing at nearly 10%, anchors this rally, making it essential to stop doubting the bull market based on outdated fears.
ETF Inflows as a Confidence Barometer
Capital flows confirm this shift. The中证A500指数 (CSI A500 Index), representing economic transformation and new quality productive forces, has attracted significant ETF investments. On December 22, per Choice data,华夏基金 (China Asset Management)’s A500ETF基金 (512050) saw turnover突破百亿元大关 (exceed 100 billion yuan), with estimated net inflows near 29 billion yuan based on closing prices. This场内交易 (on-exchange) fervor has boosted interest in场外份额 (off-exchange shares), such as the华夏中证A500ETF联接C (022431), offering accessible participation. These inflows signal that savvy capital is betting on future value, not past stereotypes. For real-time data, investors can monitor ETF trends on platforms like the Shanghai Stock Exchange website.
Strategic Implications for Global Investors
As the bull market unfolds, international participants must adapt their strategies. The认知差 (cognitive gap) between doubt and reality presents a窗口 (window) of opportunity that won’t wait for the hesitant. Here are actionable insights to navigate this landscape.
Focus on Structural Winners
– Prioritize sectors aligned with new quality productive forces: high-tech manufacturing, robotics, AI, and semiconductors, as evidenced by their robust growth metrics.
– Monitor policy tailwinds: Initiatives like the Hainan Free Trade Port and domestic demand expansion offer leveraged plays on regional and consumer themes.
– Use ETFs for diversified exposure: Products like the A500 ETF provide efficient access to core assets without single-stock risk.
Manage Risks with Due Diligence
While optimism is warranted, risks remain. Regulatory shifts from bodies like the 中国证监会 (China Securities Regulatory Commission) can impact sectors, and global economic headwinds may cause volatility. However, the underlying data—from tax revenue to industrial output—supports a bullish outlook. Investors should conduct thorough research, perhaps starting with the Ministry of Finance’s fiscal reports available here, to inform decisions.
Embracing the Rally with Confidence
In summary, the Chinese equity rally is underpinned by tangible strengths: resilient domestic demand, recovering fiscal health, and explosive growth in high-tech industries. The transition from speculative stories to earnings-driven validation marks a mature phase where doubting the bull market could mean missing substantial gains. As capital flows into key indices and policies reinforce strategic directions, the message is clear: economic transformation is underway, and its direction is firm. For investors worldwide, the call to action is to move beyond skepticism, leverage tools like ETFs for exposure, and align portfolios with the structural shifts defining China’s market. Remember, in finance, pessimists may sound smart, but optimists capture the era’s红利 (dividends). Stop doubting the bull market—start strategizing for its next leg.
★ Disclaimer: The views expressed here are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Always perform your own due diligence and consult financial professionals, as markets involve risks.