Executive Summary: Key Takeaways from November 2025 Housing Data
– The latest data from 国家统计局 (National Bureau of Statistics) highlights a growing price divergence in China’s real estate market, with new home prices stabilizing in select cities while second-hand home prices experience widespread cooling.
– Eight of China’s 70 major cities reported month-on-month increases in new home prices in November 2025, up from previous months, signaling potential bottoming in premium segments, led by Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Hefei.
– Second-hand home prices declined across all city tiers, with first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing significant drops, driven by shifts in transaction structures and increased new supply competition.
– Expert analysis from industry figures like Yan Yuejin (严跃进) and Li Yujia (李宇嘉) points to underlying factors such as policy effects, supply dynamics, and brokerage activity shaping this market split.
– For investors, this divergence underscores the need for selective exposure, with opportunities in stabilized new developments but caution required in the secondary market amid ongoing price adjustments.
A Market at a Crossroads: November 2025 Data Unveils Split Trends
The Chinese real estate market, a critical barometer for the nation’s economic health and a focal point for global capital, has entered a nuanced phase as 2025 draws to a close. Data released on December 15, 2025, by 国家统计局 (National Bureau of Statistics) paints a picture of contrasting fortunes between new and existing home segments. This price divergence in China’s real estate market is not merely a statistical blip but a reflection of deeper structural shifts, regulatory impacts, and evolving consumer sentiment. For institutional investors and corporate executives worldwide, understanding this split is essential for navigating investment strategies in Chinese equities and related sectors. The November figures reveal that while new home prices in certain core cities are finding a floor, the second-hand market continues to face downward pressure, creating a complex landscape for asset allocation and risk assessment.
New Home Price Trends: Stabilization Gains Footing
According to the report, in November 2025, new commercial residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed signs of stabilization. Month-on-month, prices increased in eight cities, including Hefei, Xiangyang, Nanjing, Guiyang, Shenyang, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Yangzhou. This marks an improvement from previous months and suggests that year-end buying demand and policy support are beginning to take effect. On a year-on-year basis, Shanghai stood out with a 5.1% increase, followed by Hangzhou at 3% and Hefei at 1.3%. Notably, Shanghai has seen new home prices rise year-on-year for 85 consecutive months since November 2018, with an average increase of 5.6% over the past 14 months, demonstrating remarkable resilience in its premium segment. This stability in new home prices, particularly in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, indicates that high-quality developments are attracting buyer interest despite broader market headwinds.
Second-Hand Home Price Trends: Cooling Intensifies
Expert Analysis: Decoding the Drivers Behind the DivergenceTo grasp the implications of this market split, insights from leading analysts provide crucial context. The price divergence in China’s real estate market is not accidental but rooted in specific economic and behavioral factors.
Yan Yuejin’s Perspective: Foundations for Recovery
Li Yujia’s Insights: Supply and Transaction DynamicsRegional Deep Dive: Spotlight on Key Cities and VariationsThe national data masks significant regional disparities, with some cities outperforming while others struggle. This price divergence in China’s real estate market is vividly illustrated at the city level, offering clues for targeted investment approaches.
Shanghai: A Bastion of New Home Price Strength
Other Major Cities: Mixed Signals and Pressure PointsUnderlying Factors: What’s Driving the Market Split?The price divergence in China’s real estate market is fueled by multiple interconnected factors, ranging from policy interventions to market psychology. Understanding these drivers is key to anticipating future movements.
Policy Impacts and Regulatory Environment
Supply Composition and Buyer PreferencesInvestment Implications and Forward-Looking GuidanceFor global investors, fund managers, and corporate executives, the current market environment presents both opportunities and risks. The price divergence in China’s real estate market requires a strategic approach to capitalize on stabilization while mitigating exposure to cooling segments.
Portfolio Strategy: Navigating the Divergence
Market Outlook: What to Watch in 2026Synthesizing Insights for Strategic Decision-MakingThe November 2025 housing data reveals a complex but navigable landscape for those engaged in Chinese real estate and equity markets. The key takeaway is the clear price divergence in China’s real estate market, with new home prices showing pockets of strength driven by quality supply and policy effects, while second-hand prices face persistent cooling due to structural and transactional factors. This split offers actionable insights: investors should prioritize exposure to premium new developments in resilient cities like Shanghai, while exercising caution in the secondary market and regions with weaker fundamentals. As the market evolves, continuous monitoring of data, expert analysis from figures like Yan Yuejin (严跃进) and Li Yujia (李宇嘉), and policy shifts will be essential. For forward-looking guidance, consider subscribing to updates from authoritative sources such as the National Bureau of Statistics or engaging with specialized research firms to stay ahead of trends. By understanding this divergence, you can make informed decisions that align with both short-term opportunities and long-term market transformations in China’s dynamic real estate sector.