Meta Description: Ten major Chinese brokerages concur the current market consolidation offers a strategic entry point, with policy support and liquidity shifts paving the way for a potential year-end rally. Key sectors and actionable insights detailed for professional investors.
Executive Summary:
– Multiple top-tier Chinese securities firms, including CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan Securities, identify the present period as a critical window for equity positioning ahead of an anticipated market upswing.
– Policy clarity from the Central Economic Work Conference (中央经济工作会议) and expectations for proactive fiscal and monetary measures in 2026 are viewed as primary catalysts for a year-end rally.
– Investment themes are converging on technology (AI, semiconductors), advanced manufacturing, and sectors poised to benefit from domestic demand recovery and ‘anti-involution’ policies.
– A strategic shift is advised: balancing portfolios with both external-demand resilience and domestic-catalyst sensitivity to capture valuation elasticity.
– The consensus suggests that after recent adjustments, market liquidity and investor sentiment are poised to improve, setting the stage for a cross-year行情 (year-end rally) potentially starting in the coming weeks.
As the final trading weeks of the year approach, a decisive shift in sentiment is emerging from the research desks of China’s most influential financial institutions. After a prolonged period of market adjustment and cautious positioning, a chorus of leading brokerages is now issuing a clear directive: the current phase represents a pivotal strategic window for investors. This collective analysis, synthesizing views from ten major firms, centers on the growing conviction that a跨年行情 (year-end rally) is not only possible but increasingly probable, driven by a confluence of policy tailwinds, improving liquidity, and undervalued sectors. For global institutional investors focused on Chinese equities, this moment demands attention, as the alignment of domestic policy intent with evolving market technicals may well define portfolio performance into the new year. The core thesis is that patience is now being rewarded with opportunity, and the window for布局 (positioning) is open.
Decoding the Brokerage Consensus: From Caution to Conviction
The unified message from firms like CITIC Securities (中信证券), Guotai Junan Securities (国泰君安证券), and China Galaxy Securities (中国银河证券) marks a notable turn from the guarded optimism of recent months. Their weekly strategy reports, a bellwether for domestic institutional sentiment, now emphasize actionable timing over mere observation.
The Anatomy of the Current Opportunity Window
CITIC Securities provides a nuanced framework, highlighting the divergent expectations between domestic and external demand-oriented stocks. Last year, skepticism toward exports was proven wrong by outperformance. This year, while external-facing sectors have strong earnings visibility, their valuation upside may be limited. Conversely, domestic-demand sectors, though currently lackluster in sentiment, hold significant valuation elasticity should recovery beat expectations. The firm advises seeking交集 (intersection)—companies with a solid external revenue base that could also be catalyzed by positive domestic shifts. This balanced approach is key to navigating the potential year-end rally.
Policy Shifts Laying the Groundwork
Policy Catalysts: The Engine for a Year-End RallyThe recently concluded Central Economic Work Conference has served as the cornerstone for renewed market optimism. Its directives provide a clearer roadmap for 2026, reducing macroeconomic uncertainty and allowing investors to focus on fundamentals.
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Synergy
The conference’s call for fiscal policy to be ‘more proactive’ and ‘domestic-demand led’ is a direct response to the challenge of ‘insufficient effective demand.’ Brokerages like China Galaxy Securities note this as the most urgent practical contradiction to solve. In tandem, with the Chinese yuan remaining stable, expectations for a People’s Bank of China (中国人民银行) interest rate cut in early 2026 are rising. This potential monetary easing, combined with proactive fiscal spending, creates a supportive liquidity environment historically conducive to risk assets. The stage is set for a year-end rally fueled by improving credit conditions and investor confidence.
Structural Reforms and ‘Anti-Involution’ Focus
A key thematic takeaway is the reinforced commitment to ‘新质生产力’ (new quality productive forces) and ‘反内卷’ (anti-involution) policies. Everbright Securities (光大证券) points out that historical patterns show strong A-share market performance in the first year of past Five-Year Plans, a trend that could repeat in 2026. The policy mix aims not just at stabilization but at qualitative improvement, targeting overcapacity in certain industries while fostering innovation in areas like artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and advanced manufacturing. This dual focus provides a rich tapestry of sector-specific cues for the anticipated跨年行情.
Sector Strategies: Where to Position for the Rally
The brokerages’ recommendations reveal a convergence on several high-conviction themes, offering a playbook for investors looking to capitalize on the year-end rally.
Technology and Advanced Manufacturing at the Forefront
Cyclical Recovery and Domestic Demand PlaysAlongside growth, a rebound in cyclical and consumer sectors is anticipated. Guojin Securities (国金证券) asserts that ‘the gears of the economy will not stop because of changes in expectations,’ directing attention to基本面 (fundamentals). Their recommendations include:
– Industrial resources (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil) benefiting from global manufacturing recovery and AI-driven investment.
– Non-bank financials (insurance, securities) poised to gain from capital market reforms and bottoming asset returns.
– Chinese equipment exporters (grid, energy storage, engineering machinery) and domestic manufacturing sectors showing signs of bottom reversal.
– Consumer sectors (aviation, hotels, duty-free, F&B) expected to recover with capital inflows and increased inbound tourism.
This diversified approach ensures exposure to both the cyclical rebound and the structural consumption recovery, a balanced strategy for the year-end rally.
Market Dynamics and Technical Considerations
Beyond fundamentals, the brokerages dissect the liquidity and sentiment shifts that could power the跨年行情.
Liquidity Inflection and Institutional Flows
Guotai Junan Securities notes that the phase of portfolio derisking for year-end performance is concluding. They anticipate a resurgence of allocation activity and the return of institutional funds at the turn of the year, which should improve market liquidity and trading activity. Everbright Securities adds that policy红利 (dividends) are likely to bolster market confidence and attract incremental capital inflows. However, Oriental Wealth offers a note of tactical caution, suggesting that while微观流动性 (micro-liquidity) will improve, the most significant influx may come after the Chinese New Year, advising a base of financial and high-dividend stocks in the interim while伺机布局 (waiting for opportunities to position) in growth sectors.
Valuation and Timing the Entry
Cinda Securities (信达证券) provides a nuanced view on growth stocks, suggesting they might be in a high震荡区间 (volatility range) in the short term due to external uncertainties like Federal Reserve policy. However, they posit that the跨年行情 could serve as the first window for a growth stock rebound, as these high-beta sectors typically benefit from ample liquidity during such periods. They advise focusing on growth sub-sectors with better value, such as consumer electronics, gaming, wind power, and batteries, while watching for右侧 (right-side) opportunities driven by earnings acceleration. This technical perspective underscores that the year-end rally may not be a straight line upward but could present selective entry points.
Risks, External Factors, and the Global Context
International Monetary Policy CrosscurrentsThe Federal Reserve’s policy path, the potential for the Bank of Japan to restart its rate-hike cycle, and adjustments in overseas tech stocks are cited as factors that could temper the pace of the rally, particularly for growth sectors. China Galaxy Securities notes that while the Fed’s recent rate cut was in line with expectations, internal disagreements have widened, adding uncertainty. Investors must balance the attractive domestic policy setup with these global monetary policy nuances to effectively navigate the potential year-end rally.
Geopolitical and Implementation Risks
Synthesizing the Path Forward for InvestorsThe collective intelligence from China’s premier brokerages paints a coherent picture: after a period of digestion, the market is at an inflection point. The policy framework from the Central Economic Work Conference has reduced systemic uncertainty, corporate earnings are on a gradual recovery trajectory, and liquidity conditions are set to improve. This confluence creates a compelling case for the emergence of a跨年行情. The key for sophisticated investors is to move from observation to action, using this window to strategically rebalance portfolios.
The consensus advises a multi-pronged approach: establish core positions in policy-backed technology and advanced manufacturing themes; allocate to cyclical sectors poised for recovery as global demand stabilizes; and selectively add exposure to domestic consumer plays benefiting from ongoing reopening. Maintain discipline around valuation, particularly in high-flying growth segments, and stay attuned to liquidity signals. The window for布局 is open now, but it may not remain so indefinitely as the market begins to price in the improving fundamentals. The time to position for the anticipated year-end rally is upon us.