Executive Summary
Key takeaways from the latest earnings pre-announcements by China’s major listed insurers:
– Net profits for leading insurers like New China Life Insurance (新华保险) and China Life Insurance (中国人寿) are expected to surge 40-70% year-over-year in the first three quarters of 2025.
– Investment returns, driven by a recovering A-share market, are the primary catalyst, with equity holdings benefiting from sustained market gains.
– New business value (NBV) growth remains strong, supported by product demand and regulatory changes, enhancing long-term profitability.
– Analysts project continued valuation repair for the insurance sector, with both asset and liability sides showing resilience.
Insurers Set for Record-Breaking Quarterly Results
China’s listed insurers are poised to deliver exceptional third-quarter earnings, with preliminary reports indicating a significant uptick in profitability. The listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge has captured market attention, as companies like New China Life Insurance (新华保险), China Property & Casualty Insurance (中国财险), and China Life Insurance (中国人寿) pre-announced robust growth. This trend underscores a broader recovery in the financial sector, driven by favorable market conditions and strategic asset allocation. For global investors, these results highlight the resilience of Chinese equities amid evolving economic policies.
The listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge is not an isolated event but part of a sustained upward trajectory. According to Soochow Securities Chief Strategist and Non-Bank Financial Analyst Sun Ting (孙婷), ‘We expect listed insurers to achieve high profit growth in the third quarter despite a high base from last year.’ This optimism is rooted in comprehensive data showing consistent performance improvements across key metrics.
Notable Pre-Announcements and Historical Context
New China Life Insurance kicked off the earnings season on October 13 with a forecasted net profit increase of 45-65% for the first nine months of 2025. If realized, this would set a new historical high for the company, surpassing full-year 2024 profits. Similarly, China Property & Casualty Insurance and China Life Insurance projected growth of 40-60% and 50-70%, respectively. These figures exceed earlier analyst expectations, such as those from Founder Securities, which had predicted more modest gains.
What makes this listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge remarkable is the high comparison base from 2024. Last year, the top five A-share insurers reported a collective 78.29% profit increase, and current projections suggest new records are within reach. For instance, China Life Insurance’s estimated net profit range of 156.79 billion to 177.69 billion yuan reflects robust operational efficiency and market adaptability.
Investment Returns Fuel Profit Growth
The driving force behind the listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge is unequivocally their investment performance. As equity markets stabilized and gained momentum, insurers capitalized on opportunities to enhance returns. China Life Insurance attributed its profit jump to ‘proactive equity investments and optimized asset allocation,’ echoing sentiments from peers. The沪深300 (CSI 300) index’s 18% rise in the first three quarters of 2025 provided a tailwind, with insurers’ equity exposures yielding substantial gains.
This listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge is further amplified by accounting practices. A significant portion of equity investments is classified as fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), meaning unrealized gains directly boost quarterly profits. Data from Soochow Securities reveals that New China Life Insurance and China Life Insurance have the highest FVTPL ratios among peers, at 81.2% and 77.4%, respectively. This structural advantage allows them to fully leverage market upswings.
Market Dynamics and Portfolio Strategies
Insurers benefited from a ‘slow bull’ market that began in April 2025, characterized by steady gains rather than volatility. The balanced exposure to both dividend-paying and growth stocks—a ‘barbell strategy’—enabled diversified returns. For example, holdings in sectors aligned with China’s ‘new quality productive forces’ initiative contributed to outperformance. By the end of H1 2025, the top five A-share insurers had increased their stock investment balances by 411.86 billion yuan, a 28.7% jump from year-end 2024.
Outbound link: For detailed market data, refer to the Shanghai Stock Exchange (上海证券交易所) announcements on equity performance.
Liability Side Strengthens with NBV Growth
Beyond investments, the listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge is supported by improvements in the liability side, particularly new business value (NBV). Analyst teams, including those from Founder Securities, project an average NBV growth of 36.1% for the first three quarters, building on H1’s 30.5% expansion. This growth is fueled by factors like premium rate adjustments and robust bancassurance channels. For instance, August 2025 saw a spike in new policy premiums, with bancassurance and individual agent channels rising over 70% and 30% year-over-year, respectively.
The listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge thus reflects a dual boost from asset and liability management. Products like dividend-based insurance gained appeal as investment returns climbed, while health and long-term care policies saw demand rise amid demographic shifts. China Property & Casualty Insurance also highlighted underwriting profit growth as a contributor, indicating broader operational health.
Regulatory and Product Trends
Regulatory changes, such as the ‘报行合一’ (unified reporting) policy for non-auto insurance, are expected to reduce comprehensive cost ratios by 0.2-0.9 percentage points upon implementation. This, combined with fewer catastrophic events in Q3, helped curb claims costs. Meanwhile, the return of critical illness products with dividend features is likely to sustain premium growth, aligning with consumer needs for financial protection and returns.
Sector Outlook and Investment Implications
The listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge has reignited investor interest in the insurance板块 (insurance sector). From April to October 2025, the sector outperformed with a 13.26% gain, frequently leading A-share rallies. Analysts like Xu Yishan (许旖珊) of Founder Securities affirm that ‘sector earnings are likely to exceed expectations,’ citing stabilized long-term interest rates and fundamental improvements. This listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge is not just a quarterly anomaly but a sign of sustained recovery, offering opportunities for portfolio diversification.
For institutional investors, the key is to monitor full earnings reports for confirmation of trends. The listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge could signal a broader economic stabilization, given insurers’ role as long-term capital allocators. Strategies might include increasing exposure to insurers with high FVTPL ratios or those demonstrating NBV resilience.
Valuation Repair and Future Projections
With profitability at record levels, insurers’ price-to-book ratios are undergoing reassessment. Ge Yuxiang (葛玉翔) of Zhongtai Securities notes that the ‘slow bull’ market environment supports continued earnings momentum. If investment returns remain strong and liability growth persists, the listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge could extend into 2026, making the sector a compelling buy for value-oriented investors.
Strategic Insights for Market Participants
The listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge underscores the importance of timing and sector rotation in Chinese equities. Investors should prioritize companies with proven asset-liability management capabilities, such as those highlighted in pre-announcements. Additionally, regulatory filings from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) provide further context on industry trends.
Outbound link: Access CBIRC updates on insurance sector regulations for deeper analysis.
Actionable Recommendations
– Review quarterly reports of top performers like New China Life Insurance and China Life Insurance for detailed breakdowns of investment and NBV metrics.
– Consider diversifying into insurance ETFs to capture sector-wide gains amid the listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge.
– Monitor interest rate movements and regulatory policies, as these will influence future profitability.
Embracing the Insurance Sector Revival
The listed insurers’ Q3 earnings surge marks a pivotal moment for China’s financial markets, demonstrating the sector’s adaptability and growth potential. With profits driven by strategic investments and product innovation, insurers are well-positioned for continued outperformance. Investors should act promptly to leverage this window of opportunity, conducting due diligence on individual stocks and sector trends. As the earnings season unfolds, staying informed through reliable sources will be crucial for capitalizing on this upward trajectory.