Executive Summary
Key takeaways from the recent sales reports and market data:
- Major A-share listed pig enterprises reported mixed sales volumes but uniformly lower average selling prices in September 2025, with declines ranging from 4.80% to 8.88% month-over-month.
- October 2025 data shows continued deterioration, with live pig prices falling below 13 yuan per kilogram and pork wholesale prices dropping under 19 yuan per kilogram.
- Futures markets reflect growing pessimism, with China’s live pig futures contract declining approximately 9% in September and accelerating losses in early October.
- Industry analysts project prolonged pressure on pig prices due to structural oversupply, though government intervention may provide some price support.
- Investors should monitor monthly sales reports, policy developments, and supply-demand indicators for timing potential market inflection points.
China’s Livestock Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
The Chinese pork industry, representing nearly half of global production, enters a critical phase as declining prices threaten profitability across the supply chain. Recent sales disclosures from major listed producers confirm the pig prices continue to decline trend that began earlier this year has intensified through September 2025. This development carries significant implications for food inflation, rural incomes, and protein sector investments in the world’s second-largest economy.
With pork constituting approximately 60% of China’s meat consumption, price movements in this sector directly impact consumer price indices and household spending patterns. The current downturn follows a period of recovery after the African swine fever outbreak, highlighting the cyclical nature of China’s protein markets. As the pig prices continue to decline, market participants must assess whether this represents a temporary correction or the beginning of a more extended downcycle.
September 2025 Sales Performance Analysis
Sales reports from China’s publicly-traded pork producers reveal a challenging operating environment during September 2025. While sales volumes showed modest growth at some companies, pricing pressure dominated the narrative across the sector.
Major Producer Performance Metrics
The recently released data illustrates the divergent fortunes within the industry:
- 天邦食品 (Tianbang Food) reported selling 612,700 commercial pigs in September 2025, including 252,300 piglets, generating 634 million yuan in revenue. The company’s average selling price declined to 13.69 yuan per kilogram, representing an 8.88% month-over-month decrease.
- 大北农 (Dabeinong) disclosed sales of 373,700 head of live pigs, yielding 541 million yuan in revenue. While sales volume increased 6.10% from August, the average price fell to 12.91 yuan per kilogram.
- 牧原股份 (Muyuan Shares), China’s largest pig producer, sold 5.573 million commercial pigs but saw revenue decline 22.46% year-over-year to 9.066 billion yuan. The company’s average selling price dropped to 12.88 yuan per kilogram, down 30.94% from September 2024.
- 温氏股份 (Wens Shares) moved 3.325 million pigs in September, with revenue of 4.975 billion yuan. The average price for live pigs fell to 13.18 yuan per kilogram, declining 5.18% month-over-month and 30.81% year-over-year.
- 新希望 (New Hope) sold 1.394 million head, generating 1.746 billion yuan in revenue. The company’s average selling price decreased to 12.89 yuan per kilogram, down 4.80% from August and 31.47% from the previous year.
Diverging Volume and Price Trends
The September data reveals an important industry dynamic: while some producers managed to increase sales volumes, none could escape the pricing pressure. This suggests that the pig prices continue to decline trend reflects broader market forces rather than company-specific issues. The uniform price declines across major producers indicate systemic oversupply conditions that are affecting the entire sector.
Accelerating Price Declines in October 2023
Recent data from official sources confirms that the downward momentum has continued into October, with both live pig and pork prices falling further below psychologically important levels.
Official Price Tracking Data
According to the 农业农村部全国重点农产品市场信息平台 (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs National Key Agricultural Products Market Information Platform), live pig prices have broken through multiple support levels:
- As of October 10, 2025, live pig market prices stood at 12.50 yuan per kilogram, down from 12.59 yuan at September’s end and 13.77 yuan in late August.
- The current price represents a substantial decline from the 15.98 yuan per kilogram recorded at the end of 2024 and a dramatic drop from the peak above 21 yuan per kilogram in August 2024.
- Pork wholesale prices followed a similar trajectory, falling to 18.85 yuan per kilogram by October 10, compared to 19.40 yuan at September’s end and 19.76 yuan in late August.
- The current pork price is significantly below the 22.37 yuan per kilogram level from December 2024 and less than 70% of the peak above 27 yuan per kilogram reached in August 2024.
Futures Market Reaction
China’s live pig futures market has mirrored the spot market weakness, with the most active contract declining approximately 9% during September alone. The selling pressure intensified in early October, with the contract falling more than 8% in just two trading sessions on October 9 and 10. This futures market activity suggests that professional traders expect the pig prices continue to decline trend to persist in the coming months.
Structural Factors Driving the Downturn
Multiple industry dynamics are contributing to the current price weakness, with both cyclical and structural elements influencing market conditions.
Supply Expansion and Efficiency Gains
China’s pork industry has undergone significant transformation in recent years, with large-scale producers increasing their market share and operational efficiency. This concentration has led to more stable breeding herd numbers but also more consistent output, reducing the price volatility that previously characterized the sector. However, these efficiency gains have also enabled producers to maintain higher production levels even as prices decline, extending the downward cycle.
Changing Consumption Patterns
While pork remains the dominant protein in Chinese diets, consumption patterns have evolved in recent years. Economic uncertainty, health consciousness, and alternative protein availability have modestly reduced per capita pork consumption from historical peaks. This gradual demand shift has coincided with supply expansion, creating a less favorable supply-demand balance that contributes to the pig prices continue to decline environment.
Expert Analysis and Price Projections
Industry analysts and research institutions have published detailed assessments of the current market situation and likely future developments.
Zhengxin Futures Assessment
正信期货 (Zhengxin Futures) recently published research suggesting that the current downcycle may have further to run. The firm notes that based on historical patterns, the current pressure period has not yet reached average duration or magnitude. However, the analysis also highlights potential mitigating factors, particularly government intervention: “The government has demonstrated strong commitment to guiding reasonable price recovery and initiated industry restructuring in late May. This policy support could shorten the pressure period and moderate price declines.”
Looking specifically at the near-term outlook, Zhengxin’s analysis indicates that pig prices continue to decline for at least the next three months based on leading indicators tracking piglet supply and demand dynamics. The firm emphasizes that as large-scale producers dominate upstream operations, the relationship between piglet markets and finished hog prices has strengthened, providing more reliable signals for future price movements.
Hualong Futures Perspective
华龙期货 (Hualong Futures) offers a similarly cautious near-term assessment, noting that supply-side pressures remain elevated despite gradual seasonal demand improvement. The firm expects the market to enter a “supply and demand dual increase” pattern, where consumption growth fails to offset production expansion. According to their research: “The oversupply situation is unlikely to fundamentally improve in October, with prices expected to remain under pressure. While cost support exists at current levels, any rebound potential appears limited, suggesting continued low-level volatility.”
Policy Responses and Market Implications
The Chinese government has historically intervened in pork markets during periods of extreme price volatility, and current conditions may trigger additional policy measures.
Existing Intervention Measures
In late May 2025, authorities initiated industry restructuring efforts focused on reducing average slaughter weights and trimming production capacity. These measures represent a more targeted approach compared to previous interventions, aiming to address specific structural imbalances rather than applying broad price controls. The government’s heightened focus on price stability reflects concerns about deflationary pressures in the broader economy.
Potential Additional Steps
If the pig prices continue to decline trend intensifies, market participants anticipate several possible policy responses:
- Accelerated strategic pork reserves purchasing to absorb excess supply
- Enhanced credit support for struggling producers to prevent disorderly capacity reduction
- Import adjustments to balance domestic market conditions
- Additional guidance on production levels for major integrated producers
Investment Considerations and Sector Outlook
The current market environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors with exposure to China’s pork sector.
Navigating the Downcycle
With the pig prices continue to decline trend well-established, investors should focus on several key factors:
- Company-specific cost structures and break-even levels, which vary significantly across the industry
- Balance sheet strength and liquidity positions, which determine resilience during extended downturns
- Vertical integration benefits, with companies controlling more of the supply chain typically demonstrating greater stability
- Policy sensitivity, as government interventions can rapidly alter market dynamics
Long-term Structural Shifts
Despite current challenges, China’s pork industry continues its transition toward greater scale, efficiency, and environmental compliance. This consolidation process creates opportunities for well-capitalized leaders to gain market share during industry stress periods. Investors with longer time horizons might view the current weakness as a potential entry point for positions in sector leaders positioned to benefit from eventual recovery and continued industry rationalization.
Strategic Positioning for Market Participants
As the pig prices continue to decline trend extends into its seventh month, market participants must adopt strategic approaches to navigate the challenging environment. The uniform price pressure across major producers indicates systemic rather than company-specific issues, suggesting that recovery will require broader market rebalancing. Policy interventions may provide temporary support but are unlikely to reverse the fundamental oversupply conditions in the near term.
Investors should maintain close monitoring of monthly sales reports, inventory data, and policy announcements for signs of market inflection. The current cycle highlights the importance of understanding both micro-level company fundamentals and macro-level industry dynamics when assessing Chinese agricultural investments. While the pig prices continue to decline pattern presents near-term challenges, it also creates potential opportunities for positioned investors as the industry works through this necessary adjustment phase.