Eliza Wong
Executive Summary
Shanghai’s luxury residential market continues to demonstrate remarkable strength amid broader economic headwinds, with a recent transaction nearing the city’s price record.
- A 865-square-meter unit at Kerry Golden Bell Garden Phase II sold for 326,800 RMB per square meter, totaling 283 million RMB.
- Despite the high price, the sale did not break Shanghai’s existing record of 345,000 RMB per square meter set in 2016.
- Market experts emphasize that such ultra-luxury transactions remain exceptional and do not reflect the broader residential market.
- High-end real estate transactions over 30 million RMB have exceeded 1,000 units annually for two consecutive years.
- Market polarization is increasing, with prime locations outperforming suburban and less-connected areas.
Shanghai Luxury Real Estate Market Sees Near-Record Transaction
Shanghai’s high-end property sector remains a bright spot in China’s real estate landscape, as evidenced by a landmark transaction in the city’s Huangpu District. On September 21, 2025, Kerry Properties sold all 120 units released in the second phase of its Golden Bell Garden (嘉里金陵华庭) project, generating 9.843 billion RMB in sales revenue. The project’s average price stood at 205,000 RMB per square meter, with an average unit price of approximately 82 million RMB.
Breakdown of the Record-Breaking Sale
Among the transactions, one 865-square-meter residence sold for 283 million RMB, translating to a per-square-meter price of 326,800 RMB. While impressive, this figure remains below Shanghai’s all-time high of 345,000 RMB per square meter, achieved in 2016 at a Overseas Chinese Town Suhe Bay (上海华侨城苏河湾) villa. Zhang Bo (张波), Director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, noted that while this sale is an outlier, it underscores sustained demand within the Shanghai luxury real estate market.
Expert Insights on Market Dynamics
Industry analysts highlight that premium properties in core urban locations continue to attract deep-pocketed investors, driven by scarcity and long-term value appreciation.
Not All High-End Properties Are Equal
According to Lu Wenxi (卢文曦), Senior Research Manager at Centaline Property, transactions exceeding 30 million RMB per unit are becoming more frequent but remain confined to a niche segment. He emphasized that buyer confidence in Shanghai’s prime real estate remains strong, particularly for unique properties with irreplaceable attributes.
Comparison with Historical Records and Broader Market
Although the recent sale did not break the per-square-meter record, it exceeded the total transaction value of the 2016 record holder. When expanded to include the judicial auction market, even higher prices have been recorded. In May 2025, a garden residence in Xinhua Road sold for 504,600 RMB per square meter, while a historic villa in Julu Road fetched over 1 million RMB per square meter in 2024.
Beyond New Developments: The Auction Market
These astronomical figures, however, are not representative of the general market. They instead highlight the extreme upper bound of Shanghai’s property valuation spectrum, often driven by unique architectural heritage or unparalleled locations.
Market Polarization and Segment Performance
The luxury segment’s robust performance contrasts with challenges faced in the mass-market sector, illustrating a deeply bifurcated market.
High-End vs. Mass-Market Conditions
Data from the E-House Research Institute indicates that transactions for homes priced above 30 million RMB reached 1,096 units in the first half of 2025, continuing a trend from 2024 which saw 1,542 annual sales. This represents a 214% increase compared to the 2017–2023 average. However, less central locations with inadequate infrastructure continue to face sales pressures.
Investment Implications and Future Outlook
For global investors, Shanghai’s luxury real estate market offers a compelling, albeit highly selective, investment opportunity. Prime assets in core areas are likely to maintain their value, supported by limited supply and sustained demand from high-net-worth individuals.
Strategic Considerations for Investors
Investors should focus on properties in established high-demand zones such as Lujiazui, the Bund, and emerging tech hubs like Zhangjiang and Caohejing. These areas benefit from economic vitality, infrastructure investment, and demographic tailwinds.
Final Thoughts
The recent near-record transaction in Shanghai’s luxury real estate market reinforces the segment’s resilience amid broader market softening. While exceptional sales capture headlines, they remain indicative of a highly stratified market where location, uniqueness, and economic context drive value. For investors, diligent research and a focus on fundamentally strong assets are essential. As market polarization intensifies, aligning investment strategies with urban development trends will be critical to capitalizing on future growth opportunities.
Monitor official sales data and policy announcements from the Shanghai Housing Authority for the latest market insights.
