Eliza Wong
Shenzhen Property Transactions Jump Following Policy Support
Shenzhen’s residential property market has responded swiftly to the city’s latest policy support measures, with transaction volumes rising significantly during the first half of September. Data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Association and major agencies point to a notable pickup in both primary and secondary market activity, suggesting improved sentiment among homebuyers and investors. The so-called Golden September period—a traditionally strong season for property sales—appears to be off to a solid start, though questions remain over the medium-term sustainability of this rebound.
Key Data Highlights Strong Week-on-Week Growth
According to the Shenzhen Real Estate Association, secondary market transactions reached 1,554 units in the week from September 8 to 14, marking a 15.4% increase from the previous week. New home sales also climbed, with 589 units sold during the same period—a week-on-week rise of 17.1%. These figures reflect the early influence of the September 5 policy adjustments, which eased purchase restrictions in several non-core districts.
Real estate agencies reported even stronger growth when measuring the period from September 6 to 14. During these nine days, secondary market signings rose 27.8% compared with the previous similar-length period. Leading the gains were Bao’an District (up 67.6%), Luohu District (up 48.1%), and Longgang District (up 40.0%).
Bao’an and Luohu Emerge as Top Performers
Among all districts, Bao’an and Luohu stood out with the most significant transaction growth following the policy relaxation. Market observers attribute this outperformance to a combination of factors, including price adjustments over recent years, relatively affordable entry points, and the specific design of the new rules.
Price Corrections Attract Buyers
According to local agent Lu Pengfei (卢鹏飞), secondary market prices in some areas have fallen sharply from their peaks. A typical 88-square-meter unit in Vanke Feili Jun (万科翡丽郡) in Bao’an’s Shajing sub-district is now offered at around RMB 32,800 per square meter, down significantly from over RMB 70,000 per square meter during the market’s peak. This correction has brought homes within reach for many end-users who were previously priced out.
Similarly, in Luohu, mature amenities and lower price levels compared to core centers like Nanshan and Futian have drawn renewed interest. The Jingji Jingyufu (京基璟誉府) project reported a 30% increase in viewings year-on-year during the first weekend after the policy announcement, with 16 units sold.
Policy Tailwinds Drive Improved Sentiment
The September 5 policy adjustments included the removal of home-purchase limitations in non-core areas including Luohu, effectively allowing unlimited purchases by eligible buyers. This change has unlocked pent-up demand from previously restricted households and investors.
Expert Views on Policy Impact
Xiao Xiaoping (肖小平), Director of Shenzhen Shell Research Institute, noted that the new rules are helping to activate latent demand and improve market confidence. She emphasized that Luohu’s inclusion in the eased zone has been particularly impactful due to its established infrastructure and relative affordability.
Li Yujia (李宇嘉), Chief Researcher at the Guangdong Provincial Academy of Urban and Rural Planning, added that after more than four years of price declines, many parts of Shenzhen have seen values halve from their peaks. This has allowed more buyers to enter the market, supporting transaction volumes even amid broader economic headwinds.
Sustainability Concerns Linger
Despite the encouraging transaction data, some analysts caution that the current rebound may face challenges in the months ahead. High secondary inventory, ongoing economic uncertainty, and the risk of further price declines could temper buyer enthusiasm.
High Inventory and Price Pressure
As of September 14, secondary inventory in Shenzhen stood at 75,200 units, according to Shell (贝壳). Among these, 1,757 units had undergone price reductions within a single day, while only 134 units had seen price increases. This imbalance suggests that sellers remain motivated to close deals, potentially creating a ceiling for any near-term price recovery.
He Qianru (何倩茹), Director of Midland Realty’s National Research Center, indicated that the sustainability of the recovery will depend heavily on the secondary market, which now dominates Shenzhen’s housing landscape. She noted that consistent monthly secondary transactions above 5,000 units for at least six months would be a key indicator of a durable market recovery.
Historical Precedent and Market Cyclicality
Shenzhen’s property market has experienced several short-lived rebounds following policy loosening over the past few years. For example, after easing measures were introduced on September 30 last year, secondary transactions rose for three consecutive months before fading again in mid-2024.
Volatility Remains a Challenge
Data from the past year show that secondary transactions exceeded 5,000 units in several months, including March and April of this year, but failed to maintain that momentum. This volatility reflects lingering caution among buyers and investors, many of whom remain sensitive to job security, income outlook, and mortgage rates.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism with Selective Opportunities
The strong start to September offers hope that Shenzhen’s property market may be stabilizing, but a full-fledged recovery is not yet assured. Price sensitivity, high inventory, and macroeconomic factors will continue to influence buyer behavior in the coming quarters.
For investors and homebuyers, districts like Bao’an and Luohu may present relative value, especially for those with long-term investment horizons or genuine housing needs. However, thorough due diligence and realistic expectations around capital appreciation are advised.
Market participants should monitor transaction volumes through the remainder of September and into October, along with any further policy signals from municipal or national authorities. For now, the Golden September period appears to be delivering improved activity, but whether it marks a turning point or another temporary rebound remains to be seen.
