Changpeng Wan
The U.S. economy is showing alarming signs of slowdown, with Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius (哈祖斯) warning that growth is nearing stagnation and will require several interest rate cuts to regain momentum. Recent employment data and policy uncertainties have only intensified these concerns, suggesting Americans may need to endure a period of sluggish growth before any meaningful recovery.
Current State of U.S. Economic Growth
Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius (哈祖斯) recently stated that the U.S. economy is dangerously close to stagnation. He emphasized that while it is challenging to pinpoint the exact timing, the indicators are clear: economic momentum is fading rapidly.
Key Indicators of Slowdown
The most recent non-farm payroll report revealed that the U.S. economy created only 22,000 jobs in August—significantly lower than economists’ estimates of 75,000. Additionally, job numbers for June and July were revised downward by a total of 21,000, with June alone losing 13,000 jobs. These figures point to a broader trend of economic deceleration.
Factors Contributing to Economic Stagnation
Several factors are contributing to the current economic slowdown. Uncertainty around trade policies, particularly those related to tariffs, has made businesses cautious about hiring and expansion.
Impact of Trade Policies
The unpredictability of tariff policies under the Trump administration has created a challenging environment for businesses. Companies are hesitant to make long-term investments or increase hiring amid fears of sudden policy shifts.
Role of Artificial Intelligence
The rise of artificial intelligence has also played a role in reducing labor demand. As automation becomes more prevalent, businesses are opting for technology-driven solutions over human labor, further dampening job growth.
Employment Data and Its Implications
The weak employment data has raised concerns about the overall health of the U.S. economy. U.S. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer (洛里·查韦斯-德雷姆) downplayed the report, placing the blame squarely on the Federal Reserve. She argued that without rate cuts, American citizens will continue to suffer.
Market Reactions to Employment Reports
Investors are closely watching employment trends, as they provide critical insights into consumer spending and economic stability. The cooling job market is likely to influence investment decisions and market sentiment in the coming months.
Federal Reserve’s Expected Response
Given the economic slowdown, Jan Hatzius (哈祖斯) predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a series of rate cuts to stimulate growth. He expects cuts in September, October, and December of this year, with additional reductions likely in 2025.
Market Expectations for Rate Cuts
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, there is an 89.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September and a 10.6% chance of a 50-basis-point cut. By October, the likelihood of cumulative 50-basis-point cuts rises to 76.3%.
Long-Term Economic Outlook
Hatzius believes that the U.S. economy may not see significant improvement until 2026. Until then, growth is expected to remain relatively slow.
Role of Fiscal Policy
While current fiscal policies, including tariffs, are dragging down economic growth, Hatzius notes that fiscal measures could become a growth driver in 2025. This shift could play a crucial role in revitalizing the economy.
Navigating the Slowdown
The key to weathering this period of economic stagnation is patience and strategic policy adjustments. If the economy can navigate this slow phase without further deterioration, the risks of a more severe downturn will significantly diminish.
Preparing for the Future
For investors and policymakers, the current economic climate requires careful planning and adaptability. Monitoring employment trends, inflation data, and Federal Reserve actions will be essential for making informed decisions.
Strategies for Businesses and Individuals
Businesses should focus on flexibility and resilience, while individuals may need to prioritize financial stability over risk-taking. Diversifying investments and staying informed about economic developments can help mitigate the impact of the slowdown.
The warnings from Goldman Sachs and the latest economic data underscore the challenges facing the U.S. economy. With growth nearing stagnation and multiple rate cuts on the horizon, the path to recovery will require time, strategic policy measures, and resilience. Stay informed and proactive to navigate these uncertain economic times effectively.
